ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2024
Modelling the unexpected dynamics of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- App-based epidemic game in a university campus reveals how risk perception and behavioral interventions shape disease transmission dynamics.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Incidence of and Risk Factors for SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Vaccinated Healthcare Workers During Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma Variant in the Amazon Region, Brazil, 2021.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2025Article
- Therapeutic itineraries and testimonies of COVID-19 patients in Manaus, the epicenter of the pandemic in the Brazilian Amazon.PloS one · 2025Article
- Research on safety strategies for nucleic acid testing in sudden epidemic conditions based on a SEIARD dynamic model.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Estimate of the rate of unreported COVID-19 cases during the first outbreak in Rio de Janeiro.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic with combined effects of relapse, reinfection and environmental contribution: A modeling analysis.Results in physics · 2022Article
- Infection fatality rate and infection attack rate of COVID-19 in South American countries.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2022Article
- Modelling COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections in highly vaccinated Israel-The effects of waning immunity and third vaccination dose.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: A modeling analysis with high-and-moderate risk populations.Results in physics · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In late March 2020, SARS-CoV-2 arrived in Manaus, Brazil, and rapidly developed into a large-scale epidemic that collapsed the local health system and resulted in extreme death rates. Several key studies reported that ∼76% of residents of Manaus were infected (attack rate AR≃76%) by October 2020, suggesting protective herd immunity had been reached. Despite this, an unexpected second wave of COVID-19 struck again in November and proved to be larger than the first, creating a catastrophe for the unprepared population. It has been suggested that this could be possible if the second wave was driven by reinfections. However, it is widely reported that reinfections were at a low rate (before the emergence of Omicron), and reinfections tend to be mild. Here, we use novel methods to model the epidemic from mortality data without considering reinfection-caused deaths and evaluate the impact of interventions to explain why the second wave appeared. The method fits a "flexible" reproductive number
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