Serum Fusion Transcripts to Assess the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and the Impact of Cancer Treatment through Machine Learning.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most fatal malignancies. Early diagnosis of HCC is crucial in reducing the risk for mortality. This study analyzed a panel of nine fusion transcripts in serum samples from 61 patients with HCC and 75 patients with non-HCC conditions, using TaqMan real-time quantitative RT-PCR. Seven of the nine fusions frequently detected in patients with HCC included: MAN2A1-FER (100%), SLC45A2-AMACR (62.3%), ZMPSTE24-ZMYM4 (62.3%), PTEN-NOLC1 (57.4%), CCNH-C5orf30 (55.7%), STAMBPL1-FAS (26.2%), and PCMTD1-SNTG1 (16.4%). Machine-learning models were constructed based on serum fusion-gene levels to predict HCC in the training cohort, using the leave-one-out cross-validation approach. One machine-learning model, called the four fusion genes logistic regression model (MAN2A1-FER≤40, CCNH-C5orf30≤38, SLC45A2-AMACR≤41, and PTEN-NOLC1≤40), produced accuracies of 91.5% and 83.3% in the training and testing cohorts, respectively. When serum α-fetal protein level was incorporated into the machine-learning model, a two fusion gene (MAN2A1-FER≤40, CCNH-C5orf30≤38) + α-fetal protein logistic regression model was found to generate an accuracy of 94.8% in the training cohort. The same model resulted in 95% accuracy in both the testing and combined cohorts. Cancer treatment was associated with reduced levels of most of the serum fusion transcripts. Serum fusion-gene machine-learning models may serve as important tools in screening for HCC and in monitoring the impact of HCC treatment.