Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38532346›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2024

Modelling the impact of human behavior using a two-layer Watts-Strogatz network for transmission and control of Mpox.

Qiaojuan Jia, Ling Xue, Ran Sui, Junqi Huo

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Qiaojuan JiaCollege of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, 145 Nantong Street, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150001, China.
Ling XueCollege of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, 145 Nantong Street, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150001, China. lxue@hrbeu.edu.cn.
Ran SuiCollege of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, 145 Nantong Street, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150001, China.
Junqi HuoCollege of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, 145 Nantong Street, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150001, China.

Funding

Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China 3072020CFT2402National Natural Science Foundation of China 12171116
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeThis study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies and analyze the impact of human behavior on the transmission of Mpox. The results can provide guidance to public health authorities on comprehensive prevention and control for the new Mpox virus strain in the Democratic Republic of Congo as of December 2023.

methodsWe develop a two-layer Watts-Strogatz network model. The basic reproduction number is calculated using the next-generation matrix approach. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization algorithm is used to fit Mpox cases in Canada into the network model. Numerical simulations are used to assess the impact of mitigation strategies and human behavior on the final epidemic size.

resultsOur results show that the contact transmission rate of low-risk groups and susceptible humans increases when the contact transmission rate of high-risk groups and susceptible humans is controlled as the Mpox epidemic spreads. The contact transmission rate of high-risk groups after May 18, 2022, is approximately 20% lower than that before May 18, 2022. Our findings indicate a positive correlation between the basic reproduction number and the level of heterogeneity in human contacts, with the basic reproduction number estimated at 2.3475 (95% CI: 0.0749-6.9084). Reducing the average number of sexual contacts to two per week effectively reduces the reproduction number to below one.

conclusionWe need to pay attention to the re-emergence of the epidemics caused by low-risk groups when an outbreak dominated by high-risk groups is under control. Numerical simulations show that reducing the average number of sexual contacts to two per week is effective in slowing down the rapid spread of the epidemic. Our findings offer guidance for the public health authorities of the Democratic Republic of Congo in developing effective mitigation strategies.

Indexed as

EpidemicsMpox, MonkeypoxBasic Reproduction NumberDisease OutbreaksHumansMarkov ChainsHuman behaviorMitigation strategiesMpox virusReproduction numberTwo-layer network

Identifiers

PMID38532346
PMCPMC10964561

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.