ArticleScience advances2024
Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.
Article in Science advances, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Adversarial dynamical systems characterize when data-driven learning succeeds or fails.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Noise-induced tipping of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under climate mitigation scenarios.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Imminent rapid decline of the Indonesian Throughflow after reaching a turning point of CO2 concentration.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Recent and early 20th century destabilization of the subpolar North Atlantic recorded in bivalves.Science advances · 2025Article
- Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data.Science advances · 2024Article
- Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.Nature communications · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Tipping points (TP) in climate subsystems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other subsystems, additional feedbacks, and spatial heterogeneity may promote further small-amplitude, abrupt reorganizations of geophysical flows at forcing levels lower than the critical threshold. Using a primitive-equation ocean model, we simulate a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to increasing glacial melt. Considerably before the collapse, various abrupt, qualitative changes in AMOC variability occur. These intermediate tipping points (ITP) are transitions between multiple stable circulation states. Using 2.75 million years of model simulations, we uncover a very rugged stability landscape featuring parameter regions of up to nine coexisting stable states. The path to an AMOC collapse via a sequence of ITPs depends on the rate of change of the meltwater input. This challenges our ability to predict and define safe limits for TPs.
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Registered trials
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