Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38514499›Full record

ArticleDigestive diseases and sciences2024

A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Early Rebleeding After Endoscopic Treatment of Esophagogastric Variceal Hemorrhage.

Yongqi Dong, Hongyan Xu, Zhihuan Zhang, Zhihang Zhou, Gang Zhao, Haiyan Cao, Shiyong Xiao

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Digestive diseases and sciences, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
0.4field-weighted citation impact, top 43% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed, 1 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Yongqi DongDepartment of Gastroenterology, Wushan County People's Hospital of Chongqing, No.168, Guangdongxi Road, Wushan County, Chongqing, 404700, People's Republic of China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4278-5112
Hongyan XuDepartment of Infectious Diseases, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, NO.76, Linjiang Road, Chongqing, 400010, People's Republic of China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4666-0453
Zhihuan ZhangDepartment of Rheumatology and Immunology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, NO.76, Linjiang Road, Chongqing, 400010, People's Republic of China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8701-8769
Zhihang ZhouDepartment of Gastroenterology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, NO.76, Linjiang Road, Chongqing, 400010, People's Republic of China.
Gang ZhaoDepartment of Gastroenterology, Wushan County People's Hospital of Chongqing, No.168, Guangdongxi Road, Wushan County, Chongqing, 404700, People's Republic of China.
Haiyan CaoDepartment of Gastroenterology, Chengdu Second People's Hospital, NO.10, Yunnan Road, Chengdu, 610017, People's Republic of China.
Shiyong XiaoDepartment of Clinical Nutrition, Wushan County People's Hospital of Chongqing, No.168, Guangdongxi Road, Wushan County, Chongqing, 404700, People's Republic of China. xiaoshiyong@stu.hebmu.edu.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0009-2792-5525
Dalian Medical University · CNChengdu Second People's Hospital · CNPeople's Hospital of Bishan District · CN

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundEarly rebleeding is a significant complication of endoscopic treatment for esophagogastric variceal hemorrhage (EGVH). However, a reliable predictive model is currently lacking.

aimsTo identify risk factors for rebleeding within 6 weeks and establish a nomogram for predicting early rebleeding after endoscopic treatment of EVGH.

methodsDemographic information, comorbidities, preoperative evaluation, endoscopic features, and laboratory tests were collected from 119 patients who were first endoscopic treatment for EGVH. Independent risk factors for early rebleeding were determined through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of the nomogram were assessed and compared with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), Child-Pugh, and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) scores using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analyses (DCA).

resultsEarly rebleeding occurred in 39 patients (32.8%) within 6 weeks after endoscopic treatment. Independent early rebleeding factors included gastric variceal hemorrhage (GVH), concomitant hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), international normalized ratio (INR), and creatinine. The nomogram demonstrated exceptional calibration and discrimination capability. The area under the curve for the nomogram was 0.758 (95% CI 0.668-0.848), and it was validated at 0.71 through cross-validation and bootstrapping validation. The DCA and ROC curves demonstrated that the nomogram outperformed the MELD, Child-Pugh, and ALBI scores.

conclusionsCompared with existing prediction scores, the nomogram demonstrated superior discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability for predicting rebleeding in patients with EGVH after endoscopic treatment. Therefore, it may assist clinicians in the early implementation of aggressive treatment and follow-up.

Indexed as

Esophageal and Gastric VaricesGastrointestinal HemorrhageNomogramsRecurrenceAdultAgedFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPredictive Value of TestsRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsROC CurveCirrhosisEndoscopyEsophagogastric variceal hemorrhageNomogramRebleeding

Identifiers

PMID38514499
OpenAlexW4393057471

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.