Post-glacial range formation of temperate forest understorey herbs - Insights from a spatio-temporally explicit modelling approach.

Aim: Our knowledge of Pleistocene refugia and post-glacial recolonization routes of forest understorey plants is still very limited. The geographical ranges of these species are often rather narrow and show highly idiosyncratic, often fragmented patterns indicating either narrow and species-specific ecological tolerances or strong dispersal limitations. However, the relative roles of these factors are inherently difficult to disentangle. Location: Central and south-eastern Europe. Time period: 17,100 BP - present. Major taxa studied: Five understorey herbs of European beech forests: Methods: We used spatio-temporally explicit modelling to reconstruct the post-glacial range dynamics of the five forest understorey herbs. We varied niche requirements, demographic rates and dispersal abilities across plausible ranges and simulated the spread of species from potential Pleistocene refugia identified by phylogeographical analyses. Then we identified the parameter settings allowing for the most accurate reconstruction of their current geographical ranges. Results: We found a largely homogenous pattern of optimal parameter settings among species. Broad ecological niches had to be combined with very low but non-zero rates of long-distance dispersal via chance events and low rates of seed dispersal over moderate distances by standard dispersal vectors. However, long-distance dispersal events, although rare, led to high variation among replicated simulation runs. Main conclusions: Small and fragmented ranges of many forest understorey species are best explained by a combination of broad ecological niches and rare medium- and long-distance dispersal events. Stochasticity is thus an important determinant of current species ranges, explaining the idiosyncratic distribution patterns of the study species despite strong similarities in refugia, ecological tolerances and dispersal abilities.