Prediction of Fuhrman pathological grade of renal clear cell carcinoma based on CT texture analysis.

objectiveTo study the predictive performance of the imaging model based on the texture analysis of CT plain scan in distinguishing between low (grade I and II) and high (grade III and IV) of Fuhrman pathological grade of renal clear cell carcinoma.

methodsThe clinical data of 94 patients with ccRCC who underwent CT scan and were confirmed by biopsy or surgery in TCGA-KIRC public database were retrospectively analyzed. There were 32 cases of low-grade ccRCC and 62 cases of high-grade ccRCC. The patients were randomly divided into training set and verification set according to the proportion of 7:3 by stratified sampling method. The imaging characteristics of ccRCC were calculated in the plain CT images. Lasso regression was used to reduce the dimensionality of the imaging characteristics of the training set, and binary logistic regression was used to construct the prediction model. Bootstrap method was used to verify the training set model and the validation set model, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was calculated respectively.

resultsBinary logistic regression showed that only imaging features were independent risk factors for predicting the Furhman classification of ccRCC. The predictive model was y = 1/[1 + exp (-z)], z = 1.274 × imaging risk score + 0.072. The results of bootstrap internal validation showed that the AUC of the training group was 0.961 (95% CI: 0.900-0.913). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed that the prediction model had a good calibration in the training group (P = 0.416). The AUC of prediction model in validation group was 0.731 (95% CI: 0.500-1.000). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test results showed that the prediction model had a good calibration in the validation group (P = 0.592).

conclusionThe model based on CT texture analysis has a good predictive effect in differentiating low-grade and high-grade ccRCC and can provide reference for the treatment and prognosis of patients.