ArticleNature communications2024
Pitfalls in diagnosing temperature extremes.
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Nonlinear increase of compound drought-heatwave events since the early 2000s.Science advances · 2026Article
- Contrary effects of soil moisture-atmosphere feedback on dry and humid heatwaves.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Threefold increase in atmospheric-riverine compound heatwaves under climate change.Nature geoscience · 2026Article
- Rising worldwide challenges to climate-induced extreme low-production events of photovoltaic and wind power.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Increasing central and northern European summer heatwave intensity due to forced changes in internal variability.Nature communications · 2025Article
- The Impact of Extreme Weather on Dengue Fever in Guangzhou, China: A Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Spatial Lag Analysis.GeoHealth · 2025Article
- Anthropogenic forcing drives equatorward migration of heatwave locations across continents.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Quantifying localized heatwave impact on mortality: a multi-country modeling study in the Asia-Pacific region.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Heat, health, and habitats: analyzing the intersecting risks of climate and demographic shifts in Austrian districts.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Threatened Birds in a Changing Mediterranean Wetland: Long-Term Trends and Climate-Driven Threats.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Daily rainfall variability controls humid heatwaves in the global tropics and subtropics.Nature communications · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Worsening temperature extremes are among the most severe impacts of human-induced climate change. These extremes are often defined as rare events that exceed a specific percentile threshold within the distribution of daily maximum temperature. The percentile-based approach is chosen to follow regional and seasonal temperature variations so that extremes can occur globally and in all seasons, and frequently uses a running seasonal window to increase the sample size for the threshold calculation. Here, we show that running seasonal windows as used in many studies in recent years introduce a time-, region-, and dataset-depended bias that can lead to a striking underestimation of the expected extreme frequency. We reveal that this bias arises from artificially mixing the mean seasonal cycle into the extreme threshold and propose a simple solution that essentially eliminates it. We then use the corrected extreme frequency as reference to show that the bias also leads to an overestimation of future heatwave changes by as much as 30% in some regions. Based on these results we stress that running seasonal windows should not be used without correction for estimating extremes and their impacts.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.