Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38499539›Full record

ArticleNature communications2024

Projecting the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. population structure.

Andrea M Tilstra, Antonino Polizzi, Sander Wagner, Evelina T Akimova

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Andrea M TilstraLeverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield Department of Population Health, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 1JD, UK. andrea.tilstra@demography.ox.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-7622-9088
Antonino PolizziLeverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield Department of Population Health, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 1JD, UK.
Sander WagnerLeverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield Department of Population Health, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 1JD, UK.
Evelina T AkimovaLeverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield Department of Population Health, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 1JD, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8733-3745

Funding

EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (H2020 Excellent Science - European Research Council) Advanced Grant CHRONO 835079EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (H2020 Excellent Science - European Research Council) ERC-2021-CoG- 101002587Leverhulme Trust RC-2018-003
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The immediate, direct effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the United States population are substantial. Millions of people were affected by the pandemic: many died, others did not give birth, and still others could not migrate. Research that has examined these individual phenomena is important, but fragmented. The disruption of mortality, fertility, and migration jointly affected U.S. population counts and, consequently, future population structure. We use data from the United Nations World Population Prospects and the cohort component projection method to isolate the effect of the pandemic on U.S. population estimates until 2060. If the pandemic had not occurred, we project that the population of the U.S. would have 2.1 million (0.63%) more people in 2025, and 1.7 million (0.44%) more people in 2060. Pandemic-induced migration changes are projected to have a larger long-term effect on future population size than mortality, despite comparable short-term effects.

Indexed as

COVID-19PandemicsFertilityHumansPopulation DensityPopulation DynamicsUnited States

Identifiers

PMID38499539
PMCPMC10948855

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.