Deep learning model to predict lupus nephritis renal flare based on dynamic multivariable time-series data.

objectivesTo develop an interpretable deep learning model of lupus nephritis (LN) relapse prediction based on dynamic multivariable time-series data.

designA single-centre, retrospective cohort study in China.

settingA Chinese central tertiary hospital.

participantsThe cohort study consisted of 1694 LN patients who had been registered in the Nanjing Glomerulonephritis Registry at the National Clinical Research Center of Kidney Diseases, Jinling Hospital from January 1985 to December 2010.

methodsWe developed a deep learning algorithm to predict LN relapse that consists of 59 features, including demographic, clinical, immunological, pathological and therapeutic characteristics that were collected for baseline analysis. A total of 32 227 data points were collected by the sliding window method and randomly divided into training (80%), validation (10%) and testing sets (10%). We developed a deep learning algorithm-based interpretable multivariable long short-term memory model for LN relapse risk prediction considering censored time-series data based on a cohort of 1694 LN patients. A mixture attention mechanism was deployed to capture variable interactions at different time points for estimating the temporal importance of the variables. Model performance was assessed according to C-index (concordance index).

resultsThe median follow-up time since remission was 4.1 (IQR, 1.7-6.7) years. The interpretable deep learning model based on dynamic multivariable time-series data achieved the best performance, with a C-index of 0.897, among models using only variables at the point of remission or time-variant variables. The importance of urinary protein, serum albumin and serum C3 showed time dependency in the model, that is, their contributions to the risk prediction increased over time.

conclusionsDeep learning algorithms can effectively learn through time-series data to develop a predictive model for LN relapse. The model provides accurate predictions of LN relapse for different renal disease stages, which could be used in clinical practice to guide physicians on the management of LN patients.