ArticleNature communications2024
The decline of the 2022 Italian mpox epidemic: Role of behavior changes and control strategies.
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 29 citations in OpenAlex.
- Dynamics of global mpox epidemics, 1970-2025: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evolving transmissibility and intervention effects.BMJ global health · 2026Pooled it
- Containment and response strategies for mpox outbreaks: a systematic review.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Pooled it
- Serologic evidence of mpox virus exposure among people living with human immunodeficiency virus in Thailand predating clinical recognition during the 2022 outbreak.IJID regions · 2026Article
- Mechanics of pandemics.EClinicalMedicine · 2026Review
- Who got vaccinated for mpox? A cross-sectional survey on behavioral correlates of vaccine uptake among men who have sex with men attending an STI/HIV reference center in Rome, Italy.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Mpox seroprevalence among sex workers and men who have sex with men preceding sustained urban outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- Differential influences of mpox illness representation on sexual behaviors among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men in Beijing and Hong Kong.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Mathematical modeling and transmission insights into Mpox: dynamics, control measures, and data-driven validation.Theory in biosciences = Theorie in den Biowissenschaften · 2026Article
- Sero-genomic evidence for occult mpox exposure in healthy Nigerian adults.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Behavior change and infection induced immunity led to the decline of the 2022 Mpox outbreak in Berlin.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Simulating targeted vaccination strategies with network-based and agent-based models: A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Simulating a potential mpox outbreak: Implications for control in non-endemic settings.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Considering the effects of pair formation dynamics on mpox and HIV co-infection in the gbMSM community.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Relationship dynamics and behavioral adaptations in the control of the 2022 mpox epidemic.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Mpox containment strategies in China, 2022-2023: from preparedness to legal management.BMJ global health · 2025Review
- Cost-effectiveness of vaccination strategies to control future mpox outbreaks in England: a modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2025Article
- Modelling international spread of clade IIb mpox on the Asian continent.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2025Article
- Transmission dynamics of the 2022 mpox epidemic in New York City.Nature medicine · 2025Article
- Monkeypox Virus: WHO's Second Public Health Emergency of International Concern Within 2 Years.Microbial biotechnology · 2025Review
- Current advances and challenges in mpox vaccine development: a global landscape.Therapeutic advances in vaccines and immunotherapy · 2025Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
In 2022, a global outbreak of mpox occurred, predominantly impacting men who have sex with men (MSM). The rapid decline of this epidemic is yet to be fully understood. We investigated the Italian outbreak by means of an individual-based mathematical model calibrated to surveillance data. The model accounts for transmission within the MSM sexual contact network, in recreational and sex clubs attended by MSM, and in households. We indicate a strong spontaneous reduction in sexual transmission (61-87%) in affected MSM communities as the possible driving factor for the rapid decline in cases. The MSM sexual contact network was the main responsible for transmission (about 80%), with clubs and households contributing residually. Contact tracing prevented about half of the potential cases, and a higher success rate in tracing contacts could significantly amplify its effectiveness. Notably, immunizing the 23% of MSM with the highest sexual activity (10 or more partners per year) could completely prevent new mpox resurgences. This research underscores the importance of augmenting contact tracing, targeted immunization campaigns of high-risk groups, and fostering reactive behavioral changes as key strategies to manage and prevent the spread of emerging sexually transmitted pathogens like mpox within the MSM community.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.