SynthesisNature communications2024
Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change.
Synthesis in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 53 citations in OpenAlex.
- Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change.Nature communications · 2024Pooled it
- Integrating fossil data in ecological niche models to improve predictions of future habitat of Caribbean corals.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2026Article
- Article
- Regional dynamics drive differences in future heat stress and reveal where Hawaiian corals are most likely to persist.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Timing and method of manganese supplementation effects thermal resilience of Acropora millepora.Biometals : an international journal on the role of metal ions in biology, biochemistry, and medicine · 2026Article
- Environmental exposures, microbiome dynamics and chronic disease risk in climate-vulnerable regions: interdisciplinary perspectives from Puerto Rico.Frontiers in public health · 2026Review
- Threefold increase in atmospheric-riverine compound heatwaves under climate change.Nature geoscience · 2026Article
- Protection of coral reef fish delivers ecosystem-critical biocontrol of coral-eating starfish across the Great Barrier Reef.Nature ecology & evolution · 2026Article
- Adaptive Potential of Intracolonial Genetic Variability in Coral Populations.Ecology and evolution · 2025Review
- Coral Bleaching: The Equatorial-Refugia Hypothesis.Global change biology · 2025Article
- The Distribution, Diversity, and Indicator Species of Coral Communities Under the Influence of Environmental Changes in the Subtropical Peninsula of Southern China.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Declining coral calcification to enhance twenty-first-century ocean carbon uptake by gigatonnes.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Article
- Some coral reef communities may degrade and change but persist.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely to safeguard most of the world's coral reefs. This prognosis is primarily based on a small subset of available models that apply similar 'excess heat' threshold methodologies. Our systematic review of 79 articles projecting coral reef responses to climate change revealed five main methods. 'Excess heat' models constituted one third (32%) of all studies but attracted a disproportionate share (68%) of citations in the field. Most methods relied on deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding the field's ability to estimate uncertainty. To synthesize the available projections, we aimed to identify models with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices in model outputs and scenarios limited the analysis to a fraction of available studies. We found substantial discrepancies in the projected impacts, indicating that the subset of articles serving as a basis for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other studies and methodologies. Drawing on insights from other fields, we propose methods to incorporate uncertainty into deterministic modeling approaches and propose a multi-model ensemble approach to generating probabilistic projections for coral reef futures.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.