Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38471554›Full record

SynthesisProceedings. Biological sciences2024

Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission: a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization.

Mariken M de Wit, Afonso Dimas Martins, Clara Delecroix, Hans Heesterbeek, Quirine A Ten Bosch

Abstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Modelling the risk of West Nile virus infection in seven European countries from published serological and case notification data, 2008 to 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Mariken M de WitQuantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-5758-636X
Afonso Dimas MartinsDepartment of Population Health Sciences, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-2220-5851
Clara DelecroixQuantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0001-5583-6903
Hans HeesterbeekDepartment of Population Health Sciences, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0001-8537-6418
Quirine A Ten BoschQuantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-5227-1406

Funding

Dutch Research Council
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Mathematical models within the Ross-Macdonald framework increasingly play a role in our understanding of vector-borne disease dynamics and as tools for assessing scenarios to respond to emerging threats. These threats are typically characterized by a high degree of heterogeneity, introducing a range of possible complexities in models and challenges to maintain the link with empirical evidence. We systematically identified and analysed a total of 77 published papers presenting compartmental West Nile virus (WNV) models that use parameter values derived from empirical studies. Using a set of 15 criteria, we measured the dissimilarity compared with the Ross-Macdonald framework. We also retrieved the purpose and type of models and traced the empirical sources of their parameters. Our review highlights the increasing refinements in WNV models. Models for prediction included the highest number of refinements. We found uneven distributions of refinements and of evidence for parameter values. We identified several challenges in parametrizing such increasingly complex models. For parameters common to most models, we also synthesize the empirical evidence for their values and ranges. The study highlights the potential to improve the quality of WNV models and their applicability for policy by establishing closer collaboration between mathematical modelling and empirical work.

Indexed as

West Nile FeverWest Nile virusHumansModels, Theoreticalepidemiologymathematical modellingRoss–Macdonaldvector-borne diseasesWest Nile virus

Identifiers

PMID38471554
PMCPMC10932716

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.