Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38471550›Full record

ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2024

Advances in remote sensing of emperor penguins: first multi-year time series documenting trends in the global population.

Michelle LaRue, David Iles, Sara Labrousse, Peter Fretwell, David Ortega, Eileen Devane, Isabella Horstmann, Lise Viollat, Rose Foster-Dyer, Céline Le Bohec and 13 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

23 authors.

Michelle LaRueDepartment of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3886-6059
David IlesCanadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, Canada.
Sara LabrousseDepartment of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8099-3254
Peter FretwellBritish Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK.
David OrtegaDepartment of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Eileen DevaneWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA.
Isabella HorstmannWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA.
Lise ViollatWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA.
Rose Foster-DyerSchool of Earth and Environment, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.ORCID 0000-0001-9047-6851
Céline Le BohecCentre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Strasbourg, IPHC UMR 7178, Strasbourg, France.
Daniel ZitterbartWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA.
Aymeric HoustinCentre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Strasbourg, IPHC UMR 7178, Strasbourg, France.
Sebastian RichterDepartment of Physics, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany.
Alexander WinterlDepartment of Physics, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany.
Barbara WieneckeDepartment of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Australian Antarctic Division, Hobart, Australia.
Leo SalasPoint Blue Conservation Science, Petaluma, CA, USA.
Monique NixonSchool of Earth and Environment, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
Christophe BarbraudCentre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR7372 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - La Rochelle Université, 79360 Villiers en Bois, France.ORCID 0000-0003-0146-212X
Gerald KooymanScripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, USA.
Paul PonganisScripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, USA.
David AinleyHT Harvey and Associated, Los Gatos, CA, USA.
Philip TrathanBritish Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK.
Stephanie JenouvrierWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA.

Funding

National Science Foundation 1744794National Science Foundation 1748898National Science Foundation 2037561
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Like many polar animals, emperor penguin populations are challenging to monitor because of the species' life history and remoteness. Consequently, it has been difficult to establish its global status, a subject important to resolve as polar environments change. To advance our understanding of emperor penguins, we combined remote sensing, validation surveys and using Bayesian modelling, we estimated a comprehensive population trajectory over a recent 10-year period, encompassing the entirety of the species' range. Reported as indices of abundance, our study indicates with 81% probability that there were fewer adult emperor penguins in 2018 than in 2009, with a posterior median decrease of 9.6% (95% credible interval (CI) -26.4% to +9.4%). The global population trend was -1.3% per year over this period (95% CI = -3.3% to +1.0%) and declines probably occurred in four of eight fast ice regions, irrespective of habitat conditions. Thus far, explanations have yet to be identified regarding trends, especially as we observed an apparent population uptick toward the end of time series. Our work potentially establishes a framework for monitoring other Antarctic coastal species detectable by satellite, while promoting a need for research to better understand factors driving biotic changes in the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

Indexed as

SpheniscidaeAnimalsAntarctic RegionsBayes TheoremEcosystemRemote Sensing TechnologyTime FactorsAntarcticaAptenodytes forsteriBayesian modellinghigh-resolution satellite imagerySouthern Ocean

Identifiers

PMID38471550
PMCPMC10932703

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.