ArticleEpidemiology and infection2024
Temporal trend analysis of acute hepatitis B virus infection in China, 1990-2019.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Global burden and forecast of acute viral hepatitis B among women of childbearing age: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal evolution of HCV burden among women of reproductive age: a multinational age-period-cohort analysis.Virology journal · 2025Article
- Age-period-cohort and bayesian age-period-cohort prediction modeling of hepatitis C incidence and mortality in China.BMC public health · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
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Abstract
China faces challenges in meeting the World Health Organization (WHO)'s target of reducing hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections by 95% using 2015 as the baseline. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, joinpoint regression models were used to analyse the temporal trends in the crude incidence rates (CIRs) and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of acute HBV (AHBV) infections in China from 1990 to 2019. The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on AHBV infection risk, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict the annual number and ASIRs of AHBV infections in China through 2030. The joinpoint regression model revealed that CIRs and ASIRs decreased from 1990 to 2019, with a faster decline occurring among males and females younger than 20 years. According to the age-period-cohort model, age effects showed a steep increase followed by a gradual decline, whereas period effects showed a linear decline, and cohort effects showed a gradual rise followed by a rapid decline. The number of cases of AHBV infections in China was predicted to decline until 2030, but it is unlikely to meet the WHO's target. These findings provide scientific support and guidance for hepatitis B prevention and control.
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