ArticleActa diabetologica2024
Mortality of type 2 diabetes in Germany: additional insights from Gompertz models.
Article in Acta diabetologica, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Hidden multistate models to study multimorbidity trajectories.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- A New Parametric Accelerated Failure Time Model for Semi-Competing Risks Data.Statistics in medicine · 2026Article
- Diabetes and all-cause mortality among middle-aged and older adults in China, England, Mexico, rural South Africa, and the USA: a population-based study of longitudinal aging cohorts.BMJ open diabetes research & care · 2025Article
- Association between catastrophic health expenditure and mortality in older people in 11 European health systems: a longitudinal analysis between 2006 and 2020.BMJ public health · 2025Article
- Modeling Chronic Disease Mortality by Methods From Accelerated Life Testing.Statistics in medicine · 2024Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
aimsThe Gompertz law of mortality proclaims that human mortality rates in middle to old ages grow log-linearly with age and this law has been confirmed at multiple instances. We investigated if diabetes mortality in Germany also obeys to the Gompertz law and how this information helps to communicate diabetes mortality more intuitively.
methodsWe analyzed all statutory health-insured persons in Germany in 2013 that were aged 30 years or older. Deaths in 2014 were recorded and given in 5-year age groups. We fitted weighted linear regression models (separately for females and males and for people with and without diabetes) and additionally computed the probability that a person with diabetes dies before a person of the same age and sex without diabetes, and the "diabetes age", that is, the additional years of mortality risk added to an individual's chronological age due to diabetes-related excess mortality.
resultsWe included N = 47,365,120 individuals, 6,541,181 of them with diabetes. In 2014, 763,228 deaths were recorded, among them 288,515 with diabetes. Diabetes mortality followed nearly perfectly Gompertz distributions. The probability that a person with diabetes dies before a person without diabetes was 61.9% for females and 63.3% for males.
conclusionsDiabetes mortality for females and males aged 30 years or older in Germany in 2014 followed the Gompertz law of mortality. The survival information of the population with diabetes during a large part of the lifespan can thus be reduced to the two parameters of the Gompertz distribution.
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