ArticleFrontiers in public health2024
Model-based impact evaluation of new tuberculosis vaccines in aging populations under different modeling scenarios: the case of China.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Introduction: The slow descent in TB burden, the COVID-19 pandemic, along with the rise of multidrug-resistant strains of Methods: In this work, we studied the potential impact of a new TB vaccine in China targeting adolescents (15-19 y.o.) or older adults (60-64 y.o.), according to varying vaccine descriptions that represent reasonable mechanisms of action leading to prevention of disease, or prevention of recurrence, each of them targetting specific routes to TB disease. To measure the influence of the description of the coupling between transmission dynamics and aging in TB transmission models, we explored two different approaches to compute the evolution of the contact matrices, which relate to the spreading among different age strata. Results: Our findings highlight the dependence of model-based impact estimates on vaccine profiles and the chosen modeling approach for describing the evolution of contact matrices. Our results also show, in line with previous modeling works, that older adult vaccination is a suitable option in China to reduce the incidence of TB as long as the vaccine is able to protect already exposed individuals. Discussion: This study underscores the importance of considering vaccine characteristics and demographic dynamics in shaping TB control strategies. In this sense, older adult vaccination emerges as a promising avenue for mitigating TB transmission in China but also remarks the need for tailored intervention strategies aligned with demographic trends.
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