ArticleNature communications2024
Drivers and impact of the early silent invasion of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha.
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of the first two epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Peru from 2020 to 2024.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Unveiling the Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma and Delta Waves in Paraná, Brazil - Delta Displacing a Persistent Gamma Through Alternative Routes of Dispersal.Journal of medical virology · 2025Article
- Phylogenetic insights into the early spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant across Europe.Virus evolution · 2025Article
- Dispersal dynamics and introduction patterns of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Iran.Virus evolution · 2025Article
- Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Drivers and impact of the early silent invasion of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha.Nature communications · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) circulated cryptically before being identified as a threat, delaying interventions. Here we studied the drivers of such silent spread and its epidemic impact to inform future response planning. We focused on Alpha spread out of the UK. We integrated spatio-temporal records of international mobility, local epidemic growth and genomic surveillance into a Bayesian framework to reconstruct the first three months after Alpha emergence. We found that silent circulation lasted from days to months and decreased with the logarithm of sequencing coverage. Social restrictions in some countries likely delayed the establishment of local transmission, mitigating the negative consequences of late detection. Revisiting the initial spread of Alpha supports local mitigation at the destination in case of emerging events.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.