Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38461151›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2024

Mortality reduction and cumulative excess incidence (CEI) in the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening era.

Patrick W McLaughlin, Matthew M Cousins, Alex Tsodikov, Payal D Soni, Juanita M Crook

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. A Quantitative Framework to Assess the Potential of Earlier Cancer Detection to Improve Cancer Survival.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2026
    Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Small Area Estimation of PSA Testing in US States and Counties.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2025
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Patrick W McLaughlin *Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Matthew M Cousins *Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. matthew.m.cousins@gmail.com.
Alex TsodikovDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Payal D SoniDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Dignity Health Cancer Institute, Phoenix, AZ, USA.
Juanita M CrookBritish Columbia Cancer Agency and University of British Columbia, Kelowna, BC, Canada.

Funding

Tissue/InformaticsP50CA186786 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI Ganesh S Palapattu · 2014 to 2026
$27.6M
Modeling Precision Interventions for Prostate Cancer ControlU01CA253915 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI ETZIONI, RUTH D, TSODIKOV, ALEXANDER · 2020 to 2025
$6.5M
Refining castration use for recurrent prostate cancerR01CA242559 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI SKOLARUS, TED ALBERT, TSODIKOV, ALEXANDER · 2020 to 2023
$1.4M
NCI NIH HHS P50 CA186786NCI NIH HHS R01 CA242559NCI NIH HHS U01 CA253915
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The extent to which PSA screening is related to prostate cancer mortality reduction in the United States (US) is controversial. US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) data from 1980 to 2016 were examined to assess the relationship between prostate cancer mortality and cumulative excess incidence (CEI) in the PSA screening era and to clarify the impact of race on this relationship. CEI was considered as a surrogate for the intensity of prostate cancer screening with PSA testing and subsequent biopsy as appropriate. Data from 163,982,733 person-years diagnosed with 544,058 prostate cancers (9 registries, 9% of US population) were examined. Strong inverse linear relationships were noted between CEI and prostate cancer mortality, and 317,356 prostate cancer deaths were avoided. Eight regions of the US demonstrated prostate cancer mortality reduction of 46.0-63.7%. On a per population basis, the lives of more black men than white men were saved in three of four registries with sufficient black populations for comparison. Factor(s) independent of CEI (potential effects of treatment advances) explained 14.6% of the mortality benefit (p-value = 0.3357) while there was a significant main effect of CEI (effect = -0.0064; CI: [-0.0088, -0.0040]; p-value < 0.0001). Therefore, there is a strong relationship between CEI and prostate cancer mortality reduction that was not related to factors independent of screening utilization. Minority populations have experienced large mortality reductions in the context of PSA mass utilization.

Indexed as

Prostate-Specific AntigenProstatic NeoplasmsEarly Detection of CancerHumansIncidenceMaleMass ScreeningUnited StatesProstate-Specific Antigen

Identifiers

PMID38461151
PMCPMC10925039

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.