ArticlePloS one2024
The weekly P25 of the age of the influenza-like illness shows a higher correlation with COVID-19 mortality than rapid tests and could predict the evolution of COVID-19 pandemics in sentinel surveillance, Piura, Perú, 2021.
Article in PloS one, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
goalTo describe the dynamics of syndromic surveillance of ILI cases in seasonal and COVID-19 pandemic scenarios. METHODOLOGY: A descriptive study of the epidemiological behavior of ILI in the seasonal and COVID-19 pandemic scenarios. Of a sample of 16,231 cases of ILI from 2013 to 2021, the features of cases from 68 weeks before and during the pandemic were selected and compared; weekly endemic channels were built; data fluctuations on the trend of ILI cases were analyzed; and estimated weekly correlations between weekly P25 age, cases confirmed by rapid tests, and mortality from COVID-19. To analyze clinical-epidemiological and mortality data, Student's t test, Mann-Whitney U, Chi2, Spearman's Ro, polynomial, and multinomial regression with a 95% confidence interval were used.
resultsDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, those most affected with ILI were: adults and the elderly; higher median age; autochthonous cases predominated; a lower proportion of other syndromes; delays in seeking care; and a higher rate of pneumonia attack than in the seasonal period (p< 0.01). Rapid tests (serological and antigenic) confirmed 52.7% as COVID-19. Two ILI pandemic waves were seasonally consistent with confirmed COVID-19 cases and district mortality with robust correlation (p<0.01) before and during the pandemic, especially the ILI weekly P25 age, which has a more robust correlation with mortality than ILI and rapid tests (p<0.01) whose endemic channels describe and could predict the evolution of the pandemic (p<0.01).
conclusionsThe pandemic changed the clinical and epidemiological behavior of ILI, and the weekly P25 of age is a more robust indicator to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic than a rapid test and could predict its evolution.
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