Cigarette Prices and Smoking Experimentation Among Zimbabwean Children: A Survival Analysis of the 2014 Global Youth Tobacco Survey.

introductionZimbabwe has a smoking prevalence of 11.7% among the adult population (15 years and older). Thus, in the absence of effective tobacco control measures, the economic burden of tobacco use will be aggravated, especially considering the increasing tobacco industry activity in the country. Increasing cigarette prices is one possible strategy to reduce tobacco consumption. This study seeks to examine the relationship between cigarette prices and smoking experimentation among children in Zimbabwe, thereby expanding the evidence base for the likely impact of excise taxes on cigarette demand in low- and middle-income countries. AIMS AND

methodsA survival analysis using the Zimbabwe 2014 Global Youth Tobacco Survey data.

resultsA 10% increase in the price of cigarettes reduces the probability of experimenting with smoking by 9%. Also, children are more likely to experiment with smoking if they have a smoking brother or father who smokes, or see teachers who smoke. The likelihood of experimenting with smoking is higher among boys than girls and is positively associated with age.

conclusionsThere is strong evidence that increasing excise taxes can play an effective role in discouraging children from experimenting with cigarette smoking. Considering the relatively low excise tax burden in Zimbabwe, the government should consider substantially increasing the excise tax burden. IMPLICATIONS: With the number of smokers in low- and middle-income countries expected to increase as the industry intensively expands its market by targeting the youth, increasing excise taxes will play a significant role in preventing children from initiating smoking and help those who are already using tobacco to quit. An increase in the excise tax increases the retail price of tobacco products, making them less affordable, and reduces the demand for them.