ArticleMalaria journal2024
Evaluating the performance of Plasmodium falciparum genetic metrics for inferring National Malaria Control Programme reported incidence in Senegal.
Article in Malaria journal, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 9 citations in OpenAlex.
- Estimating probabilities of malaria importation in southern Mozambique through modellingeLife · 2026Article
- Impact of intensive control on malaria population genomics under elimination settings in Southeast Asia.Nature microbiology · 2026Article
- Accuracy of Plasmodium falciparum genetic data for estimating parasite prevalence and malaria incidence in Uganda.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Accuracy of Plasmodium falciparum genetic data for estimating parasite prevalence and malaria incidence in Uganda.Research square · 2025Article
- MalKinID: A classification model for identifying malaria parasite genealogical relationships using identity-by-descent.Genetics · 2025Article
- Observational
- MalKinID: A Likelihood-Based Model for Identifying Malaria Parasite Genealogical Relationships Using Identity-by-Descent.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
- Update of
Authors and funding
29 authors at 8 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundGenetic surveillance of the Plasmodium falciparum parasite shows great promise for helping National Malaria Control Programmes (NMCPs) assess parasite transmission. Genetic metrics such as the frequency of polygenomic (multiple strain) infections, genetic clones, and the complexity of infection (COI, number of strains per infection) are correlated with transmission intensity. However, despite these correlations, it is unclear whether genetic metrics alone are sufficient to estimate clinical incidence.
methodsThis study examined parasites from 3147 clinical infections sampled between the years 2012-2020 through passive case detection (PCD) across 16 clinic sites spread throughout Senegal. Samples were genotyped with a 24 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) molecular barcode that detects parasite strains, distinguishes polygenomic (multiple strain) from monogenomic (single strain) infections, and identifies clonal infections. To determine whether genetic signals can predict incidence, a series of Poisson generalized linear mixed-effects models were constructed to predict the incidence level at each clinical site from a set of genetic metrics designed to measure parasite clonality, superinfection, and co-transmission rates.
resultsModel-predicted incidence was compared with the reported standard incidence data determined by the NMCP for each clinic and found that parasite genetic metrics generally correlated with reported incidence, with departures from expected values at very low annual incidence (< 10/1000/annual [‰]).
conclusionsWhen transmission is greater than 10 cases per 1000 annual parasite incidence (annual incidence > 10‰), parasite genetics can be used to accurately infer incidence and is consistent with superinfection-based hypotheses of malaria transmission. When transmission was < 10‰, many of the correlations between parasite genetics and incidence were reversed, which may reflect the disproportionate impact of importation and focal transmission on parasite genetics when local transmission levels are low.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.