Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38442740›Full record

ArticleThe Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism2024

Development and External Validation of a Home-based Risk Prediction Model of Natural Onset of Menopause-Teuta.

Lum Kastrati, Pedro Marques Vidal, Klodian Dhana, Lia Bally, Irene Lambrinoudaki, Dion Groothof, Stephan J L Bakker, Michele F Eisenga, Taulant Muka

Abstract readValidation Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Lum KastratiInstitute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0001-5759-1479
Pedro Marques VidalDepartment of Medicine, Internal Medicine, Lausanne University Hospital and University of Lausanne, 1005 Lausanne, Switzerland.
Klodian DhanaDepartment of Internal Medicine, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, IL 60612, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6397-7009
Lia BallyDepartment of Diabetes, Endocrinology, Nutritional Medicine and Metabolism, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, 3010 Bern, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0003-1993-7672
Irene LambrinoudakiNational and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 2nd Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 15772 Athens, Greece.
Dion GroothofDivision of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, 9713 GZ Groningen, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-1886-4451
Stephan J L BakkerDivision of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, 9713 GZ Groningen, The Netherlands.
Michele F EisengaDivision of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, 9713 GZ Groningen, The Netherlands.
Taulant MukaMeta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94303, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3235-3073

Funding

Dutch Kidney Foundation
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo develop and externally validate a 10-year risk prediction model of natural onset of menopause using ready-to-use predictors.

designPopulation-based prospective cohort study.

participantsCommunity-dwelling, premenopausal women aged 28 years and older enrolled in the Swiss (CoLaus) and Dutch (PREVEND) study.

main outcome measureIncidence of self-reported natural menopause. MODEL DEVELOPMENT: Based on existing literature, 11 predictors were tested in this study. The CoLaus cohort was used to develop the model by applying the backward-elimination approach and Bayesian Model Averaging. Internal validation was performed by bootstrapping. External validation was performed using data from the PREVEND cohort and recalibrating the baseline survival estimate. C-statistics, calibration slopes, and expected/observed probabilities were calculated as measures of model internal and/or external performances.

resultsThe final analysis included 750 and 1032 premenopausal women from the CoLaus and the PREVEND cohorts, respectively. Among them, 445 (59%) from CoLaus and 387 (38%) from PREVEND experienced menopause over a median follow-up of 10.7 and 9 years, respectively. The final model included age, alcohol consumption, smoking status, education level, and systolic blood pressure. Upon external calibration in the PREVEND cohort, the model exhibited good discrimination, with a C-statistic of 0.888 and an expected/observed probability of 0.82.

conclusionWe present the first internally and externally validated prediction model of natural menopause onset using readily available predictors. Validation of our model to other populations is needed.

Indexed as

MenopauseAdultBayes TheoremCohort StudiesFemaleHumansMiddle AgedNetherlandsProspective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsSwitzerlandfamily planningmenopausepredictionvalidation

Identifiers

PMID38442740
PMCPMC11651679

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.