ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2024
Constraints on regional projections of mean and extreme precipitation under warming.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Robust intensification of projected regional precipitation extremes over Africa.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal Distribution of Continuous Precipitation and Its Effect on Vegetation Cover in China over the Past 30 Years.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Machine-learning emergent constraints on surface albedo feedback over Arctic land regions.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Machine learning helps to strongly reduce future warming uncertainty.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Emergent constraints on the hydrological impacts of land use and land cover change.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Combined emergent constraints on future extreme precipitation changes.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Should we think of observationally constrained multidecade climate projections as predictions?Science advances · 2025Article
- Lessened projections of Arctic warming and wetting after correcting for model errors in global warming and sea ice cover.Science advances · 2025Article
- Constraining the entire Earth system projections for more reliable climate change adaptation planning.Science advances · 2025Article
- Increasing certainty in projected local extreme precipitation change.Nature communications · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The projected changes in the hydrological cycle under global warming remain highly uncertain across current climate models. Here, we demonstrate that the observational past warming trend can be utilized to effectively co1nstrain future projections in mean and extreme precipitation on both global and regional scales. The physical basis for such constraints relies on the relatively constant climate sensitivity in individual models and the reasonable consistency of regional hydrological sensitivity among the models, which is dominated and regulated by the increases in atmospheric moisture. For the high-emission scenario, on the global average, the projected changes in mean precipitation are lowered from 6.9 to 5.2% and those in extreme precipitation from 24.5 to 18.1%, with the inter-model variances reduced by 31.0 and 22.7%, respectively. Moreover, the constraint can be applied to regions in middle-to-high latitudes, particularly over land. These constraints result in spatially resolved corrections that deviate substantially and inhomogeneously from the global mean corrections. This study provides regionally constrained hydrological responses over the globe, with direct implications for climate adaptation in specific areas.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.