ArticleBMC public health2024
Wording the trajectory of the three-year COVID-19 epidemic in a general population - Belgium.
Article in BMC public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
The trajectory of COVID-19 epidemic waves in the general population of Belgium was analysed by defining quantitative criteria for epidemic waves from March 2020 to early 2023. Peaks and starting/ending times characterised nine waves numerated I to IX based on the daily reported incidence number (symbol INCID) and three "endemic" interval periods between the first four waves. The SIR compartmental model was applied to the first epidemic wave by fitting the daily prevalence pool (symbol I) calculated as the sum of the daily incidence rate and estimated number of subjects still infectious from the previous days. The basic reproductive number R
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