Fine tuned personalized machine learning models to detect insomnia risk based on data from a smart bed platform.

Introduction: Insomnia causes serious adverse health effects and is estimated to affect 10-30% of the worldwide population. This study leverages personalized fine-tuned machine learning algorithms to detect insomnia risk based on questionnaire and longitudinal objective sleep data collected by a smart bed platform. Methods: Users of the Sleep Number smart bed were invited to participate in an IRB approved study which required them to respond to four questionnaires (which included the Insomnia Severity Index; ISI) administered 6 weeks apart from each other in the period from November 2021 to March 2022. For 1,489 participants who completed at least 3 questionnaires, objective data (which includes sleep/wake and cardio-respiratory metrics) collected by the platform were queried for analysis. An incremental, passive-aggressive machine learning model was used to detect insomnia risk which was defined by the ISI exceeding a given threshold. Three ISI thresholds (8, 10, and 15) were considered. The incremental model is advantageous because it allows personalized fine-tuning by adding individual training data to a generic model. Results: The generic model, without personalizing, resulted in an area under the receiving-operating curve (AUC) of about 0.5 for each ISI threshold. The personalized fine-tuning with the data of just five sleep sessions from the individual for whom the model is being personalized resulted in AUCs exceeding 0.8 for all ISI thresholds. Interestingly, no further AUC enhancements resulted by adding personalized data exceeding ten sessions. Discussion: These are encouraging results motivating further investigation into the application of personalized fine tuning machine learning to detect insomnia risk based on longitudinal sleep data and the extension of this paradigm to sleep medicine.