ArticleNature communications2024
Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels.
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 47 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
47 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 89 citations in OpenAlex.
- Heatstroke Over the Past Decade: Risk Factors, Long-Term Health Consequences, and Preventive Measures.Journal of general internal medicine · 2026Pooled it
- Trial
- Non optimal temperatures and chronic cardiovascular diseases.Seminars in immunopathology · 2026Review
- The dividend period of climate change-related mortality in China is coming to an end.Fundamental research · 2026Article
- Extreme Heat and Emergency Health Impacts in the US (2018-2025).International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Article
- Older adults and extreme weather events: recommendations from the Research Centers Collaborative Network workshop.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2026Article
- Measuring supply-demand coupling coordination in China's older adult care services: spatiotemporal evolution, spatial spillover effects, and driving factors based on the spatial Durbin model.BMC health services research · 2026Article
- Projecting climate change impacts on health: A tutorial integrating the latest climate and demographic scenarios.Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2026Article
- Occupational heat risk perceptions and behavioral adaptation strategies among construction and welding workers in Bangladesh.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Multidimensional stress among rural older adults in China: status, typology, and mental health associations.BMC geriatrics · 2026Article
- Unveiling heat vulnerability of older adults: an assessment of emergency hospital admissions in Switzerland.International journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Disentangling climate hazards from demographic change in climate-health projections.Nature medicine · 2026Article
- Multifaceted Janus Textile Simultaneously Achieving Self-Sustainable Thermal Management, Perception, and Protection.Nano-micro letters · 2026Article
- Seasonal variation in temperature and life-space mobility among older adults: a pilot study using mobile health technology.Innovation in aging · 2026Article
- Prevention of postoperative delirium with transcranial alternating current stimulation: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2026Article
- A novel thermal comfort model for older adults - development and validation of the COMFA-OA model.Building and environment · 2026Article
- Expert perspectives on exposure-response functions for urban health policy: Lessons from a UBDPolicy workshop.Environmental research · 2026Review
- Clinical and environmental factors, functional status, and multimorbidity-stratifying progression and prognosis of multimorbidity, frailty, and disability: the Age-It Research Program.The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · 2025Article
- Improvements in life expectancy mask rising trends in heat-related excess mortality attributable to climate change.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Burden in the US From 2000 to 2020.JAMA network open · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
18 authors at 20 institutions in 33 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.