ArticleNature ecology & evolution2024
Reassessment of the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems.
Article in Nature ecology & evolution, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Cenozoic losses of tree diversity constrain climatic adaptation of Western and Central European forests.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Environmental Association Analyses in Plants and the Influence of Methodological Decisions.Molecular ecology · 2026Review
- Contrasting Photochemical Stability and Oxidative Injury Shape Drought Responses in Ferns and Mosses.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Spatially explicit temperature optima improve climate impact assessment of global crop productivity.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Climatic preferences of major plant clades define the functional attributes of African savanna types.npj biodiversity · 2026Article
- Global Warming and Dispersal Limitations Drive the Suitable Habitat Distribution ofPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Drought and Nitrogen Deposition Drive Community Restructuring of Endophytic Fungi and Functional Regulation by Dark Septate Endophytes inJournal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Calibration of a climate suitability model using a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE): a global case study of orange production.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Future scenarios for British biodiversity under climate and land-use change.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Early detection of biodiversity degradation risks: The critical role of remote sensing.Fundamental research · 2026Review
- Phenological shifts in mating and lambing timing in response to climate change in Urial wild sheep (Ovis vignei) populations in Iran.PloS one · 2026Article
- Climate vulnerability of Earth's terrestrial biomes.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- High tree diversity exposed to unprecedented macroclimatic conditions even under minimal anthropogenic climate change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Intergenerational justice, the impending sixth mass extinction, reproduction and advanced biotechnologies, and humanity's future.Cambridge prisms. Extinction · 2025Review
- The Sixth Mass Extinction and Amphibian Species Sustainability Through Reproduction and Advanced Biotechnologies, Biobanking of Germplasm and Somatic Cells, and Conservation Breeding Programs (RBCs).Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2024Review
- Impact of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Changes on Carbon Stocks and Economic Implications in Calabria Using Google Earth Engine (GEE).Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Effects of Low-Temperature Stress on Physiological Characteristics and Microstructure of Stems and Leaves ofPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Forecasting the risks of climate change for species and ecosystems is necessary for developing targeted conservation strategies. Previous risk assessments mapped the exposure of the global land surface to changes in climate. However, this procedure is unlikely to robustly identify priority areas for conservation actions because nonlinear physiological responses and colimitation processes ensure that ecological changes will not map perfectly to the forecast climatic changes. Here, we combine ecophysiological growth models of 135,153 vascular plant species and plant growth-form information to transform ambient and future climatologies into phytoclimates, which describe the ability of climates to support the plant growth forms that characterize terrestrial ecosystems. We forecast that 33% to 68% of the global land surface will experience a significant change in phytoclimate by 2070 under representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Phytoclimates without present-day analogue are forecast to emerge on 0.3-2.2% of the land surface and 0.1-1.3% of currently realized phytoclimates are forecast to disappear. Notably, the geographic pattern of change, disappearance and novelty of phytoclimates differs markedly from the pattern of analogous trends in climates detected by previous studies, thereby defining new priorities for conservation actions and highlighting the limits of using untransformed climate change exposure indices in ecological risk assessments. Our findings suggest that a profound transformation of the biosphere is underway and emphasize the need for a timely adaptation of biodiversity management practices.
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