Real world fracture prediction of fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX), osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians (OSTA) and one-minute osteoporosis risk test: An 11-year longitudinal study.

Introduction: Fractures affect people's quality of life especially in the elders. One of the most important risk factors is osteoporosis. There are many screening tools to predict osteoporosis and fractures. We aimed to compare the predictive validity of three commonly used screening tools: fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX), osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians (OSTA) and one-minute osteoporosis risk test. Among them, OSTA and one-minute osteoporosis risk test were originally developed to predict osteoporosis risks and FRAX was to predict fracture risks. Methods: This is an 11-year longitudinal study. We enrolled 708 senior people from health examinees in Taiwan in 2010. A standardized questionnaire and blood tests were provided. Annual telephone interview was conducted to assess the real fracture status. We calculated risk scores of FRAX, OSTA, and one-minute osteoporosis risk test and compared with real-world fracture records. Results: The mean age of the participants were 74.9 (SD 6.4). There were 356 (50.3 %) men. From 2010 to 2020, a total of 105 (14.8 %) persons suffered from fractures. Compared to people without fractures, people with fractures had higher FRAX major osteoporotic fracture risk scores (14.0 % ± 7.6 % vs.11.3 % ± 5.7 %), higher hip fracture risk scores, and higher OSTA risk (5.9 % ± 1.4 % vs. 5.3 % ± 1.3 %). Cox regression analysis showed that hazard ratios for fracture of high FRAX risk was 1.53 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.05-2.21), and for high OSTA risk was 1.37 (95 % CI 1.04-1.82). Conclusions: Only OSTA and FRAX scores were satisfactory in predicting 10-year fractures.