Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38402362›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2024

Optimizing warfarin dosing for patients with atrial fibrillation using machine learning.

Jeremy Petch, Walter Nelson, Mary Wu, Marzyeh Ghassemi, Alexander Benz, Mehdi Fatemi, Shuang Di, Anthony Carnicelli, Christopher Granger, Robert Giugliano and 5 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
7.6field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 19 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Review
  2. Review
  3. Review
  4. Review
  5. Rising Role of Artificial Intelligence in Clinical Pharmacometrics and Model-Informed Precision Dosing in Pediatrics.The journal of pediatric pharmacology and therapeutics : JPPT : the official journal of PPAG · 2026
    Article
  6. Machine Learning for Warfarin Therapy: A Systematic Review.Pharmaceuticals (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025
    Review
  7. Review
  8. Artificial intelligence in clinical thrombosis and hemostasis: A review.Research and practice in thrombosis and haemostasis · 2025
    Review
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors at 9 institutions in 4 countries.

Jeremy PetchCentre for Data Science and Digital Health, Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, ON, Canada. petchj@hhsc.ca.
Walter NelsonCentre for Data Science and Digital Health, Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Mary WuDepartment of Computer Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Marzyeh GhassemiDepartment of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Alexander BenzPopulation Health Research Institute, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Mehdi FatemiMicrosoft Research, Montreal, QC, Canada.
Shuang DiCentre for Data Science and Digital Health, Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Anthony CarnicelliDivision of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA.
Christopher GrangerDivision of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA.
Robert GiuglianoDivision of Cardiovascular Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Hwanhee HongDuke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
Manesh PatelDivision of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA.
Lars WallentinDepartment of Medical Sciences, Cardiology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
John EikelboomPopulation Health Research Institute, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Stuart J ConnollyPopulation Health Research Institute, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
University of Toronto · CADuke University · USPopulation Health Research Institute · CABrigham and Women's Hospital · USDuke Medical Center · USJohannes Gutenberg University Mainz · DEMicrosoft (Canada) · CAUppsala University · SEVector Institute · CA

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

While novel oral anticoagulants are increasingly used to reduce risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation, vitamin K antagonists such as warfarin continue to be used extensively for stroke prevention across the world. While effective in reducing the risk of strokes, the complex pharmacodynamics of warfarin make it difficult to use clinically, with many patients experiencing under- and/or over- anticoagulation. In this study we employed a novel implementation of deep reinforcement learning to provide clinical decision support to optimize time in therapeutic International Normalized Ratio (INR) range. We used a novel semi-Markov decision process formulation of the Batch-Constrained deep Q-learning algorithm to develop a reinforcement learning model to dynamically recommend optimal warfarin dosing to achieve INR of 2.0-3.0 for patients with atrial fibrillation. The model was developed using data from 22,502 patients in the warfarin treated groups of the pivotal randomized clinical trials of edoxaban (ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48), apixaban (ARISTOTLE) and rivaroxaban (ROCKET AF). The model was externally validated on data from 5730 warfarin-treated patients in a fourth trial of dabigatran (RE-LY) using multilevel regression models to estimate the relationship between center-level algorithm consistent dosing, time in therapeutic INR range (TTR), and a composite clinical outcome of stroke, systemic embolism or major hemorrhage. External validation showed a positive association between center-level algorithm-consistent dosing and TTR (R

Indexed as

Atrial FibrillationStrokeAdministration, OralAnticoagulantsHumansMachine LearningRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicRivaroxabanTreatment OutcomeWarfarinAnticoagulantsRivaroxabanWarfarin

Identifiers

PMID38402362
PMCPMC10894214
OpenAlexW4392137661

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.