SynthesisBMC cancer2024
Surrogacy of one-year survival for overall survival in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.
Synthesis in BMC cancer, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 3 citations in OpenAlex.
- Fully automated spleen segmentation predicts progression-free survival in HCC patients following transarterial radioembolization.European journal of nuclear medicine and molecular imaging · 2026Article
- The Role of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in Cancer Therapy: Mechanism and Therapeutic Advances.MedComm · 2025Review
- Efficacy and safety of Yangxiao Fukang granule in the treatment of stage Ⅲ hepatitis B related liver cancer: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.Journal of traditional Chinese medicine = Chung i tsa chih ying wen pan · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe increasing number of sequential treatments complicates the evaluation of overall survival (OS) in clinical trials for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), therefore, reliable surrogate endpoints (SEs) are required. This study aimed to evaluate the surrogacy of progression-free survival (PFS) and one-year (1-yr) milestone survival for OS in HCC trials.
methodsWe systematically searched databases for randomized clinical trials that evaluated systemic treatments for advanced HCC. Individual patient data were reconstructed to calculate the 1-yr survival rate. We adopted a two-stage meta-analytic validation model to evaluate the correlation between SEs and OS, and the correlation between treatment effects on SEs and OS. The hazard ratio (HR) was calculated to assess the treatment effects on PFS and OS, and the 1-yr survival ratio was calculated to evaluate the treatment effects on the 1-yr milestone survival.
resultsThirty-two HCC trials involving 13,808 patients were included. A weak correlation was detected between the median PFS and median OS (R2 = 0.32), whereas the correlation improved between PFS HR and OS HR (R2 = 0.58). We identified strong correlations between the 1-yr survival rate and median OS and between the 1-yr survival ratio and OS HR (R2 = 0.74 and 0.65, respectively). In subgroup analyses, PFS HR strongly correlated with OS HR in trials relevant to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Although the correlation remained weak between PFS and OS even in trials with PFS HR ≤ 0.6, the 1-yr survival rate and 1-yr survival ratio were strong surrogates for median OS and OS HR, respectively (R2 = 0.77 and 0.75).
conclusionsOne-year milestone survival outperformed PFS as a SE for OS in HCC, indicating the application of 1-yr survival as a secondary endpoint. In particular, PFS HR was a potential SE for OS HR in the ICI trials.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.