Smoking and BMI mediate the causal effect of education on lower back pain: observational and Mendelian randomization analyses.

Objective: Low back pain (LBP) has been associated with education in previous observational studies, but the causality remains unclear. This study aims to assess the impact of education on LBP and to explore mediation by multiple lifestyle factors. Design: Univariable Mendelian randomization (MR) was performed to examine the overall effect of education on LBP. Subsequently, multivariable MR was conducted to assess both the direct effect of education on LBP and the influence of potential mediators. Indirect effects were estimated using either the coefficient product method or the difference method, and the proportion of mediation was calculated by dividing the indirect effect by the total effect. The observational study utilized data from the NHANES database collected between 1999 and 2004, and included 15,580 participants aged 20 years and above. Results: Increasing education by 4.2 years leads to a 48% reduction in the risk of LBP (OR=0.52; 95% CI: 0.46 to 0.59). Compared to individuals with less than a high school education, those with education beyond high school have a 28% lower risk of LBP (OR=0.72; 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.83). In the MR study, smoking accounts for 12.8% (95% CI: 1.04% to 20.8%) of the total effect, while BMI accounts for 5.9% (95% CI: 2.99% to 8.55%). The combined mediation effect of smoking and BMI is 27.6% (95% CI: 23.99% to 32.7%). In the NHANES study, only smoking exhibits a mediating effect, accounting for 34.3% (95% CI: 21.07% to 41.65%) of the effect, while BMI does not demonstrate a mediating role. Conclusions: Higher levels of education provide a protective effect against the risk of LBP. Additionally, implementing interventions to reduce smoking and promote weight loss among individuals with lower levels of education can also decrease this risk.