Activity-related pain and sensitization predict within- and between-person pain experience in people with knee osteoarthritis: An ecological momentary assessment study.

Background and objectives: Knee Osteoarthritis (OA) is a prevalent musculoskeletal condition that often results in pain and disability. Determining factors predicting variability in pain experience is critical to improving clinical outcomes. Underlying pain sensitization and its clinical manifestations, such as activity-related pain, may better predict the knee OA pain experience. This study aimed to determine whether Quantitative Sensory Testing (QST) derived sensitization measures and activity-related pain predict knee OA pain experiences collected via smartphone ecological momentary assessment (EMA). Design: Individuals with knee OA were recruited from an urban community in New Zealand. Those eligible to participate underwent baseline QST with clinical measures of activity-related pain also being collected. The knee OA pain experience was collected via smartphone EMA three times daily for two weeks. Mixed effects location scale models were developed using a multilevel modelling approach. Results: Eighty-six participants with knee OA participated in the study. Mean age was 67.3 years, with most of the participants being female (64%) and New Zealand European (90.6%). Activity-related pain predicted worse and more variable pain intensity, pain interference, and bothersomeness outcomes within and between individuals with knee OA. Widespread cold hyperalgesia and local mechanical hyperalgesia were shown to predict higher within-person variability in pain intensity and pain interference respectively, while mechanical temporal summation predicted less within-person variability in pain intensity and interference. Discussion: Those demonstrating activity-related pain and sensitization could be at risk of experiencing worse and more variable knee OA pain in the subsequent weeks. Testing for sensitization in clinical practice could therefore identify those at greatest risk of higher and more variable knee OA pain experiences and in greatest need of treatment. Larger validation studies are required, which include individuals with more severe knee OA.