ArticleJournal of epidemiology and community health2024
Modeling chronic disease risk across equity factors using a population-based prediction model: the Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT).
Article in Journal of epidemiology and community health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed, 1 citations in OpenAlex.
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3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundPredicting chronic disease incidence at a population level can help inform overall future chronic disease burden and opportunities for prevention. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of chronic disease in Ontario, Canada, using a population-level risk prediction algorithm and model interventions for equity-deserving groups who experience barriers to services and resources due to disadvantages and discrimination.
methodsThe validated Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT) estimates the 10-year risk and incidence of major chronic diseases. CDPoRT was applied to data from the 2017/2018 Canadian Community Health Survey to predict baseline 10-year chronic disease estimates to 2027/2028 in the adult population of Ontario, Canada, and among equity-deserving groups. CDPoRT was used to model prevention scenarios of 2% and 5% risk reductions over 10 years targeting high-risk equity-deserving groups.
resultsBaseline chronic disease risk was highest among those with less than secondary school education (37.5%), severe food insecurity (19.5%), low income (21.2%) and extreme workplace stress (15.0%). CDPoRT predicted 1.42 million new chronic disease cases in Ontario from 2017/2018 to 2027/2028. Reducing chronic disease risk by 5% prevented 1500 cases among those with less than secondary school education, prevented 14 900 cases among those with low household income and prevented 2800 cases among food-insecure populations. Large reductions of 57 100 cases were found by applying a 5% risk reduction in individuals with quite a bit workplace stress.
conclusionConsiderable reduction in chronic disease cases was predicted across equity-defined scenarios, suggesting the need for prevention strategies that consider upstream determinants affecting chronic disease risk.
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