ArticleEvolution letters2024
When and how can we predict adaptive responses to climate change?
Article in Evolution letters, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers.
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Who cites it
36 citing papers in PubMed.
- High thermal plasticity, low heritability and constant directional selection on breeding phenology in a viviparous ectotherm.The Journal of animal ecology · 2026Article
- Gene flow drives periods of both evolutionary stasis and change in a wild bird population.PLoS biology · 2026Article
- Predicting Coral Offspring Survival From Reef Thermal Histories in Ningaloo World Heritage Reef.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Climate-induced patterns of activity and nest conditions select for genes associated with growth and maturation in a widespread lizard species.Research square · 2026Article
- Increased adaptive potential in novel environments can be predicted from genetic variance in development time expressed in native environments.Evolution letters · 2026Article
- Evolutionary Footprint: A Systemic Indicator in Evolution, Ecology and Conservation.Evolutionary applications · 2026Article
- Evolution of species' range and niche in changing environments.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Phylogenetics, Niche Evolution, and Distribution Dynamics ofEcology and evolution · 2026Article
- Genome Scans Reveal Species-Specific Selection in the Genus Lynx.Genome biology and evolution · 2026Article
- Evolutionary Dynamics of Gene Expression During Thermal Adaptation in Drosophila subobscura.Genome biology and evolution · 2026Article
- Trait-based approaches to restoration ecology: Synthesizing insights from diverse systems.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2026Review
- Molecular characterization and gene expression of the HSP90 gene family in Cyprinus carpio and Oreochromis niloticus under thermal stress.Fish physiology and biochemistry · 2026Article
- Conservation should assume realistic adaptive capacities.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Climatic niche properties shape treefrog diversity.PloS one · 2026Article
- Unmeasured prior viability selection resolves the paradox of stasis for body size in wild Soay sheep.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Population Genomics Reveals Local Adaptation Related to Temperature Variation in Two Stream Frog Species: Implications for Vulnerability to Climate Warming.Molecular ecology · 2025Article
- Ecological stoichiometry and life history theory, not the identity of genomic variants, predict rapid adaptation.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- A rapidly closing window for coral persistence under global warming.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Article
- Alignment across taxonomic levels in strategies rather than in traits along elevational gradients.Evolution letters · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
19 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Predicting if, when, and how populations can adapt to climate change constitutes one of the greatest challenges in science today. Here, we build from contributions to the special issue on evolutionary adaptation to climate change, a survey of its authors, and recent literature to explore the limits and opportunities for predicting adaptive responses to climate change. We outline what might be predictable now, in the future, and perhaps never even with our best efforts. More accurate predictions are expected for traits characterized by a well-understood mapping between genotypes and phenotypes and traits experiencing strong, direct selection due to climate change. A meta-analysis revealed an overall moderate trait heritability and evolvability in studies performed under future climate conditions but indicated no significant change between current and future climate conditions, suggesting neither more nor less genetic variation for adapting to future climates. Predicting population persistence and evolutionary rescue remains uncertain, especially for the many species without sufficient ecological data. Still, when polled, authors contributing to this special issue were relatively optimistic about our ability to predict future evolutionary responses to climate change. Predictions will improve as we expand efforts to understand diverse organisms, their ecology, and their adaptive potential. Advancements in functional genomic resources, especially their extension to non-model species and the union of evolutionary experiments and "omics," should also enhance predictions. Although predicting evolutionary responses to climate change remains challenging, even small advances will reduce the substantial uncertainties surrounding future evolutionary responses to climate change.
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