Association between subjective physical function and occurrence of new fractures in older adults: A retrospective cohort study.

backgroundThe Late-Stage Elderly Questionnaire has been incorporated into health assessments for older adults in Japan, encompassing three self-administered questions on subjective physical function: subjective gait speed decline, recent fall history, and exercise habits. Nevertheless, its efficacy in predicting new fracture occurrences remains uncertain.

methodsThis retrospective cohort study utilized Japan's DeSC database, a large commercially available claims database. Participants were older adults aged ≥75 years and provided complete responses to the Late-Stage Elderly Questionnaire at health check-ups. We performed two Cox regression analyses for new fractures based on the responses to the three questions (Model 1) and on age, sex, and responses to the three questions (Model 2). The predictive abilities of the 1-year occurrence of new fractures were compared between the two models.

resultsOf 11 683 eligible older adults, 927 (7.93%) experienced new fractures. Model 1 revealed significant associations between new fractures and subjective gait speed decline (hazard ratio [HR], 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.40-1.89), recent fall history (HR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.77-2.33), and absence of exercise habits (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.13-1.47). Model 2 demonstrated superior predictive ability (area under the curve, 0.677; 95% CI, 0.659-0.695) compared with Model 1 (area under the curve, 0.633; 95% CI, 0.614-0.652), with a net reclassification improvement of 0.383 (95% CI, 0.317-0.449).

conclusionThree subjective physical well-being factors were significantly associated with new fracture development in older adults. These results suggest that the three-question assessment may be a valuable screening tool for identifying new fractures. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2024; 24: 337-343.