Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38358961›Full record

ArticlePLoS pathogens2024

Testing the intrinsic mechanisms driving the dynamics of Ross River Virus across Australia.

Iain S Koolhof, Nicholas Beeton, Silvana Bettiol, Michael Charleston, Simon M Firestone, Katherine Gibney, Peter Neville, Andrew Jardine, Peter Markey, Nina Kurucz and 8 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in PLoS pathogens, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
0.5field-weighted citation impact, top 35% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 1 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

18 authors at 8 institutions in 2 countries.

Iain S KoolhofCollege of Health and Medicine, Tasmanian School of Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-9923-7416
Nicholas BeetonData61, CSIRO, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Silvana BettiolCollege of Health and Medicine, Tasmanian School of Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Michael CharlestonCollege of Sciences and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Simon M FirestoneMelbourne Veterinary School, Faculty of Science, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Katherine GibneyVictorian Department of Health and Human Services, Communicable Disease Epidemiology and Surveillance, Health Protection Branch, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Peter NevilleDepartment of Health, Western Australia, Environmental Health Directorate, Public and Aboriginal Health Division, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
Andrew JardineDepartment of Health, Western Australia, Environmental Health Directorate, Public and Aboriginal Health Division, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
Peter MarkeyCentre for Disease Control, Northern Territory Department of Health, Northern Territory, Darwin, Australia.
Nina KuruczCentre for Disease Control, Northern Territory Department of Health, Northern Territory, Darwin, Australia.
Allan WarchotCentre for Disease Control, Northern Territory Department of Health, Northern Territory, Darwin, Australia.
Vicki KrauseCentre for Disease Control, Northern Territory Department of Health, Northern Territory, Darwin, Australia.
Michael OnnBrisbane City Council, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Stacey RoweVictorian Department of Health and Human Services, Communicable Disease Epidemiology and Surveillance, Health Protection Branch, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Lucinda FranklinVictorian Department of Health and Human Services, Communicable Disease Epidemiology and Surveillance, Health Protection Branch, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Stephen FrickerAustralian Centre for Precision Health, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
Craig WilliamsAustralian Centre for Precision Health, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
Scott CarverCollege of Sciences and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Northern Territory Health Services · AUUniversity of Tasmania · AUDepartment of Health and Human Services · AUGovernment of Western Australia Department of Health · AUUniversity of South Australia · AUCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation · AUIpswich City Council · AUThe University of Melbourne · AU

Funding

Department of Health, Western Australia
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The mechanisms driving dynamics of many epidemiologically important mosquito-borne pathogens are complex, involving combinations of vector and host factors (e.g., species composition and life-history traits), and factors associated with transmission and reporting. Understanding which intrinsic mechanisms contribute most to observed disease dynamics is important, yet often poorly understood. Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most important mosquito-borne disease, with variable transmission dynamics across geographic regions. We used deterministic ordinary differential equation models to test mechanisms driving RRV dynamics across major epidemic centers in Brisbane, Darwin, Mandurah, Mildura, Gippsland, Renmark, Murray Bridge, and Coorong. We considered models with up to two vector species (Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, Aedes camptorhynchus, Culex globocoxitus), two reservoir hosts (macropods, possums), seasonal transmission effects, and transmission parameters. We fit models against long-term RRV surveillance data (1991-2017) and used Akaike Information Criterion to select important mechanisms. The combination of two vector species, two reservoir hosts, and seasonal transmission effects explained RRV dynamics best across sites. Estimated vector-human transmission rate (average β = 8.04x10-4per vector per day) was similar despite different dynamics. Models estimate 43% underreporting of RRV infections. Findings enhance understanding of RRV transmission mechanisms, provide disease parameter estimates which can be used to guide future research into public health improvements and offer a basis to evaluate mitigation practices.

Indexed as

AedesAlphavirus InfectionsCulexAnimalsAustraliaHumansMosquito VectorsRoss River virus

Identifiers

PMID38358961
PMCPMC10868856
OpenAlexW4391839729

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.