Weight Loss Treatment and Longitudinal Weight Change Among Primary Care Patients With Obesity.

Importance: Among individuals with obesity, 5% or greater weight loss can improve health. Weight management treatments (WMT) include nutrition counseling, very low-calorie meal replacement (MR), antiobesity medications (AOM), and bariatric surgery; however, little is known about how these WMT are associated with weight change among individual patients and populations. Objective: To characterize weight status and WMT use among primary care patients and assess associations between WMT and weight trajectories. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective, population-based cohort study of primary care patients from 1 academic health system in Michigan between October 2015 and March 2020 using cross-sectional analysis to compare obesity prevalence and WMT utilization. For patients with obesity and WMT exposure or matched controls, a multistate Markov model assessing associations between WMT and longitudinal weight status trajectories was used. Data were analyzed from October 2021 to October 2023. Exposures: Cross-sectional exposure was year: 2017 or 2019. Trajectory analysis exposures were WMT: nutrition counseling, MR, AOM, and bariatric surgery. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cross-sectional analysis compared mean body mass index (BMI), obesity prevalence, and, among patients with obesity, prospective WMT use. The trajectory analysis examined longitudinal weight status using thresholds of ±5% and 10% of baseline weight with primary outcomes being the 1-year probabilities of 5% or greater weight loss for each WMT. Results: Adult patients (146 959 participants) consisted of 83 636 female participants (56.9%); 8940 (6.1%) were Asian, 14 560 (9.9%) were Black, and 116 664 (79.4%) were White. Patients had a mean (SD) age of 49.6 (17.7) years and mean (SD) BMI of 29.2 (7.2). Among 138 682 patients, prevalence of obesity increased from 39.2% in 2017 to 40.7% in 2019; WMT use among patients with obesity increased from 5.3% to 7.1% (difference: 1.7%; 95% CI, 1.3%-2.2%). In a multistate model (10 180 patients; 33 549 patient-years), the 1-year probability of 5% or greater weight loss without WMT exposure was 15.6% (95% CI, 14.3%-16.5%) at reference covariates. In contrast, the probability of 5% or greater weight loss was more likely with year-long exposures to any WMT (nutrition counseling: 23.1%; 95% CI, 21.3%-25.1%; MR: 54.6%; 95% CI, 46.5%-61.2%; AOM: 27.8%; 95% CI, 25.0%-30.5%; bariatric surgery: 93.0%; 95% CI, 89.7%-95.0%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of primary-care patients with obesity, all WMT increased the patient-level probability of achieving 5% or greater weight loss, but current rates of utilization are low and insufficient to reduce weight at the population level.