Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38356065›Full record

ArticleNature2024

Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system.

Bernardo M Flores, Encarni Montoya, Boris Sakschewski, Nathália Nascimento, Arie Staal, Richard A Betts, Carolina Levis, David M Lapola, Adriane Esquível-Muelbert, Catarina Jakovac and 14 more

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 100 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
100citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
127.5field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

100 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 452 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  18. Deforestation-focused policies do not reduce degradation in the Brazilian Amazon.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  19. Article
  20. Forest recovery pathways after fire, drought, and windstorms in southeastern Amazonia.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article

40 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

24 authors at 13 institutions in 6 countries.

Bernardo M FloresGraduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil. mflores.bernardo@gmail.com.ORCID 0000-0003-4555-5598
Encarni MontoyaGeosciences Barcelona, Spanish National Research Council, Barcelona, Spain.ORCID 0000-0002-4690-190X
Boris SakschewskiPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-7230-9723
Nathália NascimentoInstitute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0003-4819-0811
Arie StaalCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0001-5409-1436
Richard A BettsMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-4929-0307
Carolina LevisGraduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-8425-9479
David M LapolaCenter for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil.
Adriane Esquível-MuelbertSchool of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5335-1259
Catarina JakovacDepartment of Plant Sciences, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-8130-852X
Carlos A NobreInstitute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Rafael S OliveiraDepartment of Plant Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-6392-2526
Laura S BormaDivision of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities (DIIAV), National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil.
Da NianPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-2320-5223
Niklas BoersPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-1239-9034
Susanna B HechtLuskin School for Public Affairs and Institute of the Environment, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Hans Ter SteegeNaturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-8738-2659
Julia ArieiraScience Panel for the Amazon (SPA), São José dos Campos, Brazil.
Isabella L LucasSustainable Development Solutions Network, New York, NY, USA.
Erika BerenguerEnvironmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8157-8792
José A MarengoCentro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais, São José dos Campos, Brazil.
Luciana V GattiDivision of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities (DIIAV), National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil.
Caio R C MattosProgram in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8635-3901
Marina HirotaGraduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil. marinahirota@gmail.com.ORCID 0000-0002-1958-3651
Leibniz Association · DEUniversidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) · BRUniversidade Federal de Santa Catarina · BRInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais · BRUniversidade de São Paulo · BRCentro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais · BRForest Research · GBMet Office · GBNaturalis Biodiversity Center · NLPrinceton University · USUniversity of California, Los Angeles · USUniversity of Oxford · GBUtrecht University · NL

Funding

UCLA’s committee on research. J.A.M.
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern

Indexed as

ForestsGlobal WarmingTreesDroughtsEnvironmental Restoration and RemediationFeedbackUncertaintyWildfires

Identifiers

PMID38356065
PMCPMC10866695
OpenAlexW4391809192

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.