ArticleScience advances2024
Unveiling the role of climate in spatially synchronized locust outbreak risks.
Article in Science advances, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Comparative modelling of two migratory locusts along the China-Kazakhstan border under climate change: Poleward habitat shifts and increasing transboundary risk.Pest management science · 2026Article
- The Evolution of Modeling Approaches: From Statistical Models to Deep Learning for Locust and Grasshopper Forecasting.Insects · 2026Review
- Vulnerability characteristics and adaptation strategies of public health systems in different regions of China.Frontiers in public health · 2025Review
- Comparison of GARP and MaxEnt in Modeling Current and Future Geographic Distribution ofEcology and evolution · 2024Article
- Age-Stage, Two-Sex Life Table ofInsects · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Desert locusts threaten crop production and food security. Spatially synchronized locust outbreaks further exacerbate these crises. Continental-scale understanding of such compound locust risks and underlying climatic drivers is crucial to designing coordinated and predictive control strategies but remains elusive. Here, we develop a data-driven framework to assess the compound risk of locust outbreaks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and elucidate the role of climate in locust dynamics. We find that more than one-fifth of high-risk country pairs faced spatially synchronized locust risks from 1985 to 2020, dominated by concurrent winds or inundations. Individual locusts are more prone to infest arid areas punched by extreme rainfall. The spatial prevalence of locusts is strongly modulated by climate variability such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation. A warming climate will lead to widespread increases in locust outbreaks with emerging hotspots in west central Asia, posing additional challenges to the global coordination of locust control.
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