Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38353870›Full record

ArticleBulletin of mathematical biology2024

Impacts of Vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission Dynamics in Four Metropolitan Areas of the United States.

Abhishek Mallela, Ye Chen, Yen Ting Lin, Ely F Miller, Jacob Neumann, Zhili He, Kathryn E Nelson, Richard G Posner, William S Hlavacek

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Bulletin of mathematical biology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Abhishek Mallela *Center for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA.
Ye Chen *Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA.
Yen Ting LinCenter for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA.
Ely F MillerDepartment of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA.
Jacob NeumannDepartment of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA.
Zhili HeDepartment of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA.
Kathryn E NelsonDepartment of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA.
Richard G PosnerDepartment of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA.
William S HlavacekCenter for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA. wish@lanl.gov.ORCID 0000-0003-4383-8711

Funding

Hardening Software for Rule-based models-Competitive RevisionR01GM111510 · NIGMS · NORTHERN ARIZONA UNIVERSITY · PI HLAVACEK, WILLIAM S, POSNER, RICHARD G · 2014 to 2023
$2.8M
NIGMS NIH HHS R01GM111510
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

To characterize Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in each of the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) surrounding Dallas, Houston, New York City, and Phoenix in 2020 and 2021, we extended a previously reported compartmental model accounting for effects of multiple distinct periods of non-pharmaceutical interventions by adding consideration of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants Alpha (lineage B.1.1.7) and Delta (lineage B.1.617.2). For each MSA, we found region-specific parameterizations of the model using daily reports of new COVID-19 cases available from January 21, 2020 to October 31, 2021. In the process, we obtained estimates of the relative infectiousness of Alpha and Delta as well as their takeoff times in each MSA (the times at which sustained transmission began). The estimated infectiousness of Alpha ranged from 1.1x to 1.4x that of viral strains circulating in 2020 and early 2021. The estimated relative infectiousness of Delta was higher in all cases, ranging from 1.6x  to 2.1x. The estimated Alpha takeoff times ranged from February 1 to February 28, 2021. The estimated Delta takeoff times ranged from June 2 to June 26, 2021. Estimated takeoff times are consistent with genomic surveillance data.

Indexed as

COVID-19SARS-CoV-2HumansMathematical ConceptsModels, BiologicalUnited StatesVaccinationBayesian inferenceCoronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)Mathematical modelSARS-CoV-2 variant Alpha (lineage B.1.1.7)SARS-CoV-2 variant Delta (lineage B.1.617.2)Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Vaccination

Identifiers

PMID38353870

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.