ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2024
Epidemiological model can forecast COVID-19 outbreaks from wastewater-based surveillance in rural communities.
Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Wastewater can play a vital role in infectious disease surveillance, especially in underserved communities where it can reduce the equity gap to larger municipalities. However, using wastewater surveillance in a predictive manner remains a challenge. We tested if detecting SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater can predict outbreaks in rural communities. Under the CDC National Wastewater Surveillance program, we monitored several rural communities in Idaho (USA). While high daily variations in wastewater viral load made real-time interpretation difficult, a SEIR model could factor out the data noise and forecast the start of the Omicron outbreak in five of the six cities that were sampled soon after SARS-CoV-2 quantities increased in wastewater. For one city, the model could predict an outbreak 11 days before reported clinical cases began to increase. An epidemiological modeling approach can transform how epidemiologists use wastewater data to provide public health guidance on infectious diseases in rural communities.
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