Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38350909›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2024

Global burden of pancreatic cancer attributable to metabolic risks from 1990 to 2019, with projections of mortality to 2030.

Ru He, Wenkai Jiang, Chenyu Wang, Xiao Li, Wence Zhou

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
31citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

31 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Cancer mortality predictions for 2026 in selected Asian countries and Australia with focus on prostate cancer.European journal of cancer prevention : the official journal of the European Cancer Prevention Organisation (ECP) · 2026
    Article
  3. Unveiling the Diagnostic Value and Potential Therapeutic Targets of Phenylalanine Metabolism in Pancreatic Cancer via Integrated Multi-Omics and Machine Learning.FASEB journal : official publication of the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology · 2026
    Article
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  10. Burden and etiology of heart failure in mainland China from 1990 to 2021: Results from the GBD 2021 study.International journal of cardiology. Cardiovascular risk and prevention · 2025
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Ru He *The Second Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, No. 222 Tianshui Road (South), Cheng-Guan District, 730030, Lanzhou City, China.
Wenkai Jiang *The Second Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, No. 222 Tianshui Road (South), Cheng-Guan District, 730030, Lanzhou City, China.
Chenyu Wang *The Second Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, No. 222 Tianshui Road (South), Cheng-Guan District, 730030, Lanzhou City, China.
Xiao LiThe Second Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, No. 222 Tianshui Road (South), Cheng-Guan District, 730030, Lanzhou City, China.
Wence ZhouThe Second Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, No. 222 Tianshui Road (South), Cheng-Guan District, 730030, Lanzhou City, China. zhouwc@lzu.edu.cn.

Funding

Gansu Provincial Science and Technology Major Project 22ZD6FA021-4National Natural Science Foundation of China 82260555National Undergraduate Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program 202310730195
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveMetabolic risks play a key role in the progression of pancreatic cancer. This study aimed to present global, regional and national data on mortality and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) for pancreatic cancer attributable to metabolic risk and to forecast mortality to 2030 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD).

methodsData on mortality and DALYs due to pancreatic cancer attributable to metabolic risks were obtained from GBD 2019. Metabolic risks include high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and high body mass index (BMI). Total numbers and age-standardized rates per 100,000 people for mortality and DALYs were reported by age, sex, region and country/territory from 1990 to 2019. The "Bayes age-period-cohort" method was used for projections of mortality to 2030.

resultsGlobally, there was a 3.5-fold increase in the number of pancreatic cancer deaths attributable to metabolic risk, from 22,091 in 1990 to 77,215 in 2019. High-income North America and Central Europe had the highest age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) of pancreatic cancer attributable to high FPG and high BMI in 2019, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the global ASMR of pancreatic cancer attributable to high FPG and high BMI increased. Countries with high healthcare access quality had much higher age-standardized DALY rates. In the next 10 years, the ASMR of pancreatic cancer attributable to high FPG and high BMI will continue to increase.

conclusionPancreatic cancer mortality and DALYs attributable to metabolic factors remain high, particularly in high-income regions or countries. Studies on the metabolic mechanism of pancreatic cancer and effective treatment strategies are needed.

Indexed as

Global Burden of DiseasePancreatic NeoplasmsBayes TheoremBody Mass IndexGlobal HealthHumansQuality-Adjusted Life YearsRisk FactorsBody mass indexDisability-adjusted life-yearFasting plasma glucoseMortalityPancreatic cancer

Identifiers

PMID38350909
PMCPMC10865635

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.