Urban green and blue infrastructure: unveiling the spatiotemporal impact on carbon emissions in China's Yangtze River Delta.

Blue-green infrastructure (BGI) plays a crucial role in regulating urban carbon cycles. Nonetheless, the spatiotemporal effect of BGI on carbon emissions has not received extensive attention. This study used the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region as the study area and quantified the landscape patterns of BGI. Using a spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression model, we analyzed the impact of evolving spatiotemporal characteristics of BGI on carbon emissions. Additionally, we constructed a spatiotemporal weight matrix using the Moran index ratio to examine the spillover effects of BGI among different regions. Our results show that the aggregation effect of carbon emissions in the YRD region is gradually increasing while BGI has a dynamic impact on carbon emissions. In terms of spatial and temporal spillovers, under the influence of economic connections between regions, patch fragmentation and distance exert a persistent positive influence on carbon emissions, while shape complexity has a negative impact, with area and layout characteristics showing no significant effects. However, area and patch distance have a persistent positive influence on carbon emissions in adjacent areas, while shape complexity exhibits a negative impact. Therefore, optimizing urban BGI through a regional synergistic governance system is important to promote low-carbon urban development.