The Short- and Long-Term Anticipation of Prostate Cancer Incidence in Korea: Based on Social Aging Trends and Prostate-Specific Antigen Testing Rate during the Last Decade.

The current incidence of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, which plays a crucial role in detecting prostate cancer (PCa) in an aged population, is low in Korea. Reflecting these epidemiologic characteristics, we estimated the short- and long-term incidences of PCa. A regression equation model was extracted based on two critical pieces of information: (1) the distribution of newly detected PCa cases in each age group of the 50s, 60s, 70s, and over 80s from a recent period (2006-2020), and (2) the PSA testing rate (PSAr) from the previous decade (2006-2016) for each age subgroup. The incidence increased fourfold (4533 in 2006 to 16,815 in 2020), with each age subgroup accounting for 7.9% (50s), 31.4% (60s), 43.0% (70s), and 17.1% (over 80s) of cases in 2020. PSAr increased by an average of 1.08% annually. If these trends are maintained, 28,822 new cases will be diagnosed in 2030 (expected PSAr: 14.4%) and 40,478 cases in 2040 (expected PSAr: 26.4%). If a public PSA screening were implemented for men only in their 60s (assuming a PSAr of 60% in the 60s) and 70s (assuming a PSAr of 80% in the 70s) in 2030, 37,503 cases in 2030 (expected PSAr: 23.1%) and 43,719 cases in 2040 (expected PSAr: 29.9%) would be estimated. According to the projection, the incidence of PCa will increase twofold by 2034 compared to 2020. If national screening were only conducted in the 60s and 70s, a higher detection of almost threefold would be expected by 2040.