Observational studyScientific reports2024
A nationwide time-series analysis for short-term effects of ambient temperature on violent crime in South Korea.
Observational study in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Association of Rising Ambient Temperatures with Increased Violence Worldwide: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.The western journal of emergency medicine · 2025Pooled it
- Temperature, Crime, and Violence: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Environmental health perspectives · 2024Pooled it
- Article
- A unified framework integrating psychology and geography.Nature human behaviour · 2025Review
- Association between ambient temperature and injuries: A time series analysis using emergency ambulance dispatches in Shanghai.Preventive medicine reports · 2025Article
- Extreme Heat and Calls to Law Enforcement Related to Domestic Violence.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Association of ambient temperatures with suicide attempts and violence with the future projections under climate change scenarios: a nationwide time-stratified case-crossover study in South Korea.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Temperature, violent crime, climate change, and vulnerability factors in 44 United States cities.Environment international · 2025Article
- Ambient temperature, suicide, and urbanicity: A nationwide time-stratified case-crossover study in South Korea.PloS one · 2025Article
- Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Psychological theories on heat-aggression relationship have existed for decades and recent models suggest climate change will increase violence through varying pathways. Although observational studies have examined the impact of temperature on violent crime, the evidence for associations is primarily limited to coarse temporal resolution of weather and crime (e.g., yearly/monthly) and results from a few Western communities, warranting studies based on higher temporal resolution data of modern systemic crime statistics for various regions. This observational study examined short-term temperature impacts on violent crime using national crime data for the warm months (Jun.-Sep.) across South Korea (2016-2020). Distributed lag non-linear models assessed relative risks (RRs) of daily violent crime counts at the 70th, 90th, and 99th summer temperature percentiles compared to the reference temperature (10th percentile), with adjustments for long-term trends, seasonality, weather, and air pollution. Results indicate potentially non-linear relationships between daily summer temperature (lag0-lag10) and violent crime counts. Violent crimes consistently increased from the lowest temperature and showed the highest risk at the 70th temperature (~ 28.0 °C). The RR at the 70th and 90th percentiles of daily mean temperature (lag0-lag10), compared to the reference, was 1.11 (95% CI 1.09, 1.15) and 1.04 (95% CI 1.01, 1.07), indicating significant associations. Stratified analysis showed significant increases in assault and domestic violence for increases in temperature. The lagged effects, the influences of heat on subsequent crime incidence, did not persist 21 days after the exposure, possibly due to the displacement phenomenon. We found curvilinear exposure-response relationships, which provide empirical evidence to support the psychological theories for heat and violence. Lower public safety through increased violent crime may be an additional public health harm of climate change.
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