ArticleThe American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene2024
Updating Reproduction Number Estimates for Mpox in the Democratic Republic of Congo Using Surveillance Data.
Article in The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Dynamics of global mpox epidemics, 1970-2025: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evolving transmissibility and intervention effects.BMJ global health · 2026Pooled it
- Secondary attack rates after mpox exposure in multiple settings during the 2022-2024 pandemic: a systematic review.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Pooled it
- Decoding mpox: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the transmission and severity parameters of the 2022-2023 global outbreak.BMJ global health · 2025Pooled it
- Mpox emergence, epidemiology, biology, clinical features and control.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2026Review
- Mpox knowledge, attitudes toward Mpox vaccine and hesitancy for Mpox vaccination among teachers in Kenya.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Role of community and sexual contacts as drivers of MPXV clade I.Nature health · 2026Article
- Nowcasting epidemic trends using hospital- and community-based virologic test data.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Generalizing an outbreak cluster detection method for two groups: an application to rabies.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Global transmission characteristics of mpox outbreaks: a systematic review and meta-analysis.EClinicalMedicine · 2025Article
- Vaccination strategies to achieve outbreak control for MPXV Clade I with a one-time mass campaign in sub-Saharan Africa: A scenario-based modelling study.PLoS medicine · 2025Article
- Clade Ib Mpox Virus: How Can We Respond?China CDC weekly · 2025Article
- Suspected and confirmed mpox cases in DR Congo: a retrospective analysis of national epidemiological and laboratory surveillance data, 2010-23.Lancet (London, England) · 2025Article
- Evolutionary Analysis and Antiviral Drug Prediction of Mpox Virus.Microorganisms · 2024Article
- Epidemiologic Quantities for Monkeypox Virus Clade I from Historical Data with Implications for Current Outbreaks, Democratic Republic of the Congo.Emerging infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Sustained human outbreak of a new MPXV clade I lineage in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.Nature medicine · 2024Article
- A Comparative Evaluation of Three Diagnostic Assays for the Detection of Human Monkeypox.Viruses · 2024Article
- Strengthening Africa's response to Mpox (monkeypox): insights from historical outbreaks and the present global spread.Science in One Health · 2024Review
- Mpox respiratory transmission: the state of the evidence.The Lancet. Microbe · 2023Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Incidence of human monkeypox (mpox) has been increasing in West and Central Africa, including in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where monkeypox virus (MPXV) is endemic. Most estimates of the pathogen's transmissibility in the DRC are based on data from the 1980s. Amid the global 2022 mpox outbreak, new estimates are needed to characterize the virus' epidemic potential and inform outbreak control strategies. We used the R package vimes to identify clusters of laboratory-confirmed mpox cases in Tshuapa Province, DRC. Cases with both temporal and spatial data were assigned to clusters based on the disease's serial interval and spatial kernel. We used the size of the clusters to infer the effective reproduction number, Rt, and the rate of zoonotic spillover of MPXV into the human population. Out of 1,463 confirmed mpox cases reported in Tshuapa Province between 2013 and 2017, 878 had both date of symptom onset and a location with geographic coordinates. Results include an estimated Rt of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.79-0.85) and a rate of 132 (95% CI: 122-143) spillovers per year assuming a reporting rate of 25%. This estimate of Rt is larger than most previous estimates. One potential explanation for this result is that Rt could have increased in the DRC over time owing to declining population-level immunity conferred by smallpox vaccination, which was discontinued around 1982. Rt could be overestimated if our assumption of one spillover event per cluster does not hold. Our results are consistent with increased transmissibility of MPXV in Tshuapa Province.
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