Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38320143›Full record

ArticleNEJM evidence2023

Artificial Intelligence Predictive Model for Hormone Therapy Use in Prostate Cancer.

Daniel E Spratt, Siyi Tang, Yilun Sun, Huei-Chung Huang, Emmalyn Chen, Osama Mohamad, Andrew J Armstrong, Jonathan D Tward, Paul L Nguyen, Joshua M Lang and 18 more

6 registry-linked trialsAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NEJM evidence, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 6 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 74 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
74citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT00002597 phase3completednot on this map

A phase iii trial of the study of endocrine therapy used as a cytoreductive and cytostatic agent prior to radiation therapy in good prognosis locally confined adenocarcinoma of the prostate

TypeinterventionalSponsorRadiation Therapy Oncology GroupRan1994 to 2018Enrolled2,028ConditionsProstate CancerArmsflutamide, Zoladex, Lupron, radiation therapy
NCT00005044 phase3completednot on this map

A Phase III Trial to Evaluate the Duration of Neoadjuvant Total Androgen Suppression (TAS) and Radiation Therapy (RT) in Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer

TypeinterventionalSponsorRadiation Therapy Oncology GroupRan2000 to 2022Enrolled1,579ConditionsProstate CancerArmsCasodex, Eulexin, LHRH agonist, radiation therapy
NCT00033631 phase3completednot on this map

A Phase III Randomized Study Of High Dose 3D-CRT/IMRT Versus Standard Dose 3D-CRT/IMRT In Patients Treated For Localized Prostate Cancer

TypeinterventionalSponsorRadiation Therapy Oncology GroupRan2002 to 2022Enrolled1,534ConditionsProstate CancerArms70.2 Gy 3D-CRT/IMRT, 79.2 Gy 3D-CRT/IMRT
NCT00767286 phase3completednot on this map

A phase iii trial of the use of long term total androgen suppression following neoadjuvant hormonal cytoreduction and radiotherapy in locally advanced carcinoma of the prostate

TypeinterventionalSponsorRadiation Therapy Oncology GroupConditionsProstate CancerArmsflutamide, goserelin acetate, low-LET cobalt-60 gamma ray therapy, low-LET photon therapy
NCT00769548 phase3completednot on this map

A phase iii trial comparing whole pelvic irradiation followed by a conedown boost to boost irradiation only and comparing neoadjuvant to adjuvant total androgen suppression (tas)

TypeinterventionalSponsorRadiation Therapy Oncology GroupRan1995 to 2016Enrolled1,322ConditionsProstate CancerArmsflutamide, goserelin acetate, low-LET photon therapy
NCT06772441 phase2recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2024, after this paper: background citation

Prostate-only, Dose-escalated Radiotherapy Plus Concomitant Androgen Deprivation Therapy in Primary Localized, NCCN High Risk and MMAI Classifier Low or Intermediate-risk Prostate Cancer - a Prospective, Single-arm, Phase II Study

TypeinterventionalSponsorGerman Oncology Center, CyprusRan2024 to 2027Enrolled30ConditionsProstate CancerArmsAndrogen deprivation therapy (ADT)
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

74 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Trial
  5. Re-examining post-operative chemoradiotherapy in head and neck cancer: an updated long-term combined analysis of RTOG 9501/EORTC 22931.Annals of oncology : official journal of the European Society for Medical Oncology · 2025
    Trial
  6. Trial
  7. Trial
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Review
  18. Review
  19. Article
  20. Article

14 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

28 authors.

Daniel E SprattDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Hospitals Seidman Cancer Center, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland.
Siyi TangDepartment of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA.
Yilun SunDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Hospitals Seidman Cancer Center, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland.
Huei-Chung HuangArtera, Inc., Los Altos, CA.
Emmalyn ChenArtera, Inc., Los Altos, CA.
Osama MohamadDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco.
Andrew J ArmstrongDuke Cancer Institute Center for Prostate and Urologic Cancer, Division of Medical Oncology, Department of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, NC.
Jonathan D TwardDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Huntsman Cancer Institute, University of Utah, Salt Lake City.
Paul L NguyenDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber/Brigham Cancer Center, Boston.
Joshua M LangDivision of Hematology/Medical Oncology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI.
Jingbin ZhangArtera, Inc., Los Altos, CA.
Akinori MitaniArtera, Inc., Los Altos, CA.
Jeffry P SimkoDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco.
Sandy DeVriesNRG Oncology Biospecimen Bank, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco.
Douwe van der WalArtera, Inc., Los Altos, CA.
Hans PinckaersArtera, Inc., Los Altos, CA.
Jedidiah M MonsonDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Saint Agnes Medical Center, Fresno, CA.
Holly A CampbellDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Saint John Regional Hospital, Saint John, NB, Canada.
James WallaceUniversity of Chicago Medicine Medical Group, Chicago.
Michelle J FergusonDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Allan Blair Cancer Centre, Regina, SK, Canada.
Jean-Paul BaharyDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Centre Hospitalier de l'Universite de Montreal, Montreal.
Edward M SchaefferDepartment of Urology, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago.
Howard M SandlerDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles.
Phuoc T TranDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore.
Joseph P RodgersStatistics and Data Management Center, NRG Oncology, Philadelphia.
Andre EstevaArtera, Inc., Los Altos, CA.
Rikiya YamashitaArtera, Inc., Los Altos, CA.
Felix Y FengDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco.

Funding

NRG Oncology Network Group Operations Center - GY9 BIQSFP Reports/BudgetsU10CA180868 · NCI · NRG ONCOLOGY FOUNDATION, INC. · PI NORMAN WOLMARK · 2014 to 2026
$206.8M
Statistics CoreU10CA180822 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI James J. Dignam · 2014 to 2026
$146.4M
NRG Oncology NCORP Research Base-BIQSFPUG1CA189867 · NCI · NRG ONCOLOGY FOUNDATION, INC. · PI Deborah Watkins Bruner, Lisa A. Kachnic · 2014 to 2026
$140.5M
NRG Oncology Biospecimen BankU24CA196067 · NCI · NRG ONCOLOGY FOUNDATION, INC. · PI Tanner J. Freeman, Nilsa Del Carmen Ramirez Milan · 2015 to 2026
$42.6M
Case Comprehensive Cancer Center NCTN Lead Academic Participating SiteUG1CA233234 · NCI · CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERSITY · PI Aaron Thomas Gerds, Daniel Eidelberg Spratt · 2019 to 2026
$11.1M
Resource Sharing CoreU54CA273956 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND BALTIMORE · PI Phuoc T. Tran · 2022 to 2026
$8.9M
Quantifying and Personalizing the Clinical Benefit of Metastasis-Directed Therapy in Men with De Novo Oligometastatic Prostate CancerU01CA257638 · NCI · CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERSITY · PI Holly Hartman, Daniel Eidelberg Spratt · 2021 to 2026
$1.8M
NCI NIH HHS U01 CA257638NCI NIH HHS U10 CA180822NCI NIH HHS U10 CA180868NCI NIH HHS U24 CA196067NCI NIH HHS U54 CA273956NCI NIH HHS UG1 CA189867NCI NIH HHS UG1 CA233234
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAndrogen deprivation therapy (ADT) with radiotherapy can benefit patients with localized prostate cancer. However, ADT can negatively impact quality of life, and there remain no validated predictive models to guide its use.

methodsWe used digital pathology images from pretreatment prostate tissue and clinical data from 5727 patients enrolled in five phase 3 randomized trials, in which treatment was radiotherapy with or without ADT, as our data source to develop and validate an artificial intelligence (AI)–derived predictive patient-specific model that would determine which patients would develop the primary end point of distant metastasis. The model used baseline data to provide a binary output that a given patient will likely benefit from ADT or not. After the model was locked, validation was performed using data from NRG Oncology/Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 9408 (n=1594), a trial that randomly assigned men to radiotherapy plus or minus 4 months of ADT. Fine–Gray regression and restricted mean survival times were used to assess the interaction between treatment and the predictive model and within predictive model–positive, i.e., benefited from ADT, and –negative subgroup treatment effects.

resultsOverall, in the NRG/RTOG 9408 validation cohort (14.9 years of median follow-up), ADT significantly improved time to distant metastasis. Of these enrolled patients, 543 (34%) were model positive, and ADT significantly reduced the risk of distant metastasis compared with radiotherapy alone. Of 1051 patients who were model negative, ADT did not provide benefit.

conclusionsOur AI-based predictive model was able to identify patients with a predominantly intermediate risk for prostate cancer likely to benefit from short-term ADT. (Supported by a grant [U10CA180822] from NRG Oncology Statistical and Data Management Center, a grant [UG1CA189867] from NCI Community Oncology Research Program, a grant [U10CA180868] from NRG Oncology Operations, and a grant [U24CA196067] from NRG Specimen Bank from the National Cancer Institute and by Artera, Inc. ClinicalTrials.gov numbers NCT00767286, NCT00002597, NCT00769548, NCT00005044, and NCT00033631.)

Indexed as

Prostatic NeoplasmsAndrogen AntagonistsArtificial IntelligenceHormonesHumansMaleProstate-Specific AntigenAndrogen AntagonistsHormonesProstate-Specific Antigen

Identifiers

PMID38320143
PMCPMC11195914

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.