Modeling the Lifetime Impact of Reconstructive Plastic Surgery Training: Implications for Building Capacity in Global Surgery.

Background: Training local surgeons and building local surgical capacity is critical to closing the gap in unmet surgical burden in low- and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. We propose a conceptual framework to quantify the impact of a single surgeon's training across multiple generations of trainees. Methods: A literature review was conducted to identify existing models for quantifying the impact of training. A model to estimate the attributable impact of surgical training was devised, based on a surgeon's attributable impact on a trainee and the lifetime number of cases trainees would perform. A quantitative survey was sent to high-income country and LMIC-based surgeons to determine the model's inputs across eight index procedures in reconstructive plastic surgery. Results: We found no existing models for quantifying the multigenerational impact of training in surgery, medicine, or nonmedical fields. Twenty-eight US-based academic plastic surgeons and 19 LMIC-based surgeons representing 10 countries provided responses. The lifetime impact of multigenerational surgical training ranged from 4100 attributable cases (skin graft) to 51,900 attributable cases (cleft lip repair) in high-income countries and from 18,200 attributable cases (carpal tunnel release) to 134,300 attributable cases (cleft lip repair) in LMICs. Conclusions: There is a sizeable impact in the first generation of training, and this impact is even greater in the second generation of training, highlighting the importance of a "multiplier effect," particularly in LMIC settings. Given the paucity of surgeons, this multiplier effect is critical in closing the surgical gap, as efforts are underway to train new cohorts of reconstructive plastic surgeons.