Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38317189›Full record

ArticleGenome medicine2024

Impact of individual level uncertainty of lung cancer polygenic risk score (PRS) on risk stratification.

Xinan Wang, Ziwei Zhang, Yi Ding, Tony Chen, Lorelei Mucci, Demetrios Albanes, Maria Teresa Landi, Neil E Caporaso, Stephen Lam, Adonina Tardon and 27 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Genome medicine, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
3.4field-weighted citation impact, top 7% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 12 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. Article
  9. Attitudes regarding polygenic risk testing for lung cancer: a mixed-methods study.Annals of behavioral medicine : a publication of the Society of Behavioral Medicine · 2025
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

37 authors at 20 institutions in 12 countries.

Xinan Wang *Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, 667 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA, 02115, USA.
Ziwei Zhang *Department of Medical Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA, USA.
Yi DingBioinformatics Interdepartmental Program, University of California, Los Angeles, USA.
Tony ChenDepartment of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
Lorelei MucciDepartment of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
Demetrios AlbanesDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Maria Teresa LandiDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Neil E CaporasoDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Stephen LamDepartment of Medicine, British Columbia Cancer Agency, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
Adonina TardonFaculty of Medicine, University of Oviedo and CIBERESP, Oviedo, Spain.
Chu ChenDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Washington School of Public Health, Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Stig E BojesenDepartment of Clinical Biochemistry, Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, Copenhagen University Hospital, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Mattias JohanssonGenomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France.
Angela RischDepartment of Biosciences and Medical Biology, Allergy-Cancer-BioNano Research Centre, University of Salzburg, and Cancer Cluster Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria.
Heike BickeböllerDepartment of Genetic Epidemiology, University Medical Center, Georg August University Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.
H-Erich WichmannInstitute of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, Ludwig Maximilians University, Munich, Germany.
Gadi RennertClalit National Cancer Control Center, Carmel Medical Center and Technion Faculty of Medicine, Carmel, Haifa, Israel.
Susanne ArnoldMarkey Cancer Center, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, USA.
Paul BrennanGenomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France.
James D McKayGenomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France.
John K FieldDepartment of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, Institute of Translational Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Sanjay S SheteDepartment of Biostatistics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA.
Loic Le MarchandEpidemiology Program, University of Hawaii Cancer Center, Honolulu, HI, USA.
Geoffrey LiuPrincess Margaret Cancer Centre, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
Angeline S AndrewDepartment of Epidemiology, Department of Community and Family Medicine, Dartmouth Geisel School of Medicine, Hanover, NH, USA.
Lambertus A KiemeneyDepartment for Health Evidence, Department of Urology, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Shan Zienolddiny-NaruiNational Institute of Occupational Health, Oslo, Norway.
Annelie BehndigDepartment of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
Mikael JohanssonDepartment of Radiation Sciences, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
Angie CoxDepartment of Oncology and Metabolism, The Medical School, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
Philip LazarusDepartment of Pharmaceutical Sciences, College of Pharmacy, Washington State University, Spokane, WA, USA.
Matthew B SchabathDepartment of Cancer Epidemiology, H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa, Florida, USA.
Melinda C AldrichDepartment of Medicine, Department of Biomedical Informatics and Department of Thoracic Surgery, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, USA.
Rayjean J HungLunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health System, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Christopher I AmosInstitute for Clinical and Translational Research, Department of Medicine, Dan L Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA.
Xihong LinDepartment of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
David C ChristianiDepartment of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, 667 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA, 02115, USA. dchris@hsph.harvard.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-0301-0242
Harvard University · USCentre international de recherche sur le cancer · FRNational Institutes of Health · USUniversity of Toronto · CABaylor College of Medicine · USBC Cancer Agency · CACarmel Medical Center · ILDana-Farber Cancer Institute · USDartmouth College · USGentofte Hospital · DKMoffitt Cancer Center · USNational Institute of Occupational Health · NORadboud University Nijmegen · NLThe University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center · USUmeå University · SEUniversidad de Oviedo · ESUniversity of California, Los Angeles · USUniversity of Göttingen · DEUniversity of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa · USUniversity of Kentucky · US

Funding

Translating Molecular and Clinical Data to Population Lung Cancer Risk AssessmentU19CA203654 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO HEALTH SCIS CTR · PI Christopher I. Amos · 2017 to 2026
$23.7M
The Boston Lung Cancer Survival CohortU01CA209414 · NCI · HARVARD UNIVERSITY D/B/A HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI David C Christiani · 2017 to 2026
$12.2M
Statistical Methods for Analysis of Massive Genetic and Genomic Data in Cancer ResearchR35CA197449 · NCI · HARVARD UNIVERSITY D/B/A HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI XIHONG LIN · 2015 to 2026
$10.9M
Powering whole genome sequence-based genetic discovery for common human diseases- Extended 2021-2022.U01HG009088 · NHGRI · HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI LIN, XIHONG, NEALE, BENJAMIN MICHAEL · 2016 to 2021
$5.1M
Predictive Modeling of the Functional and Phenotypic Impacts of Genetic VariantsU01HG012064 · NHGRI · UNIV OF MASSACHUSETTS MED SCH WORCESTER · PI Manuel Garber, XIHONG LIN · 2021 to 2026
$4.0M
Interdisciplinary training: Statistical Genetics/Genomics and Computational BiologyT32GM135117 · NIGMS · HARVARD UNIVERSITY D/B/A HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI Curtis Huttenhower, XIHONG LIN · 2020 to 2026
$3.1M
Infrastructure Support and Pilot Tissue Collection for the CARET BiorepositoryU01CA167462 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI NEUHOUSER, MARIAN L · 2018 to 2022
$2.9M
NCI NIH HHS R35 CA197449NCI NIH HHS U01 CA167462NCI NIH HHS U01 CA209414NCI NIH HHS U19 CA203654NHGRI NIH HHS U01 HG009088NHGRI NIH HHS U01 HG012064NIGMS NIH HHS T32 GM135117World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAlthough polygenic risk score (PRS) has emerged as a promising tool for predicting cancer risk from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), the individual-level accuracy of lung cancer PRS and the extent to which its impact on subsequent clinical applications remains largely unexplored.

methodsLung cancer PRSs and confidence/credible interval (CI) were constructed using two statistical approaches for each individual: (1) the weighted sum of 16 GWAS-derived significant SNP loci and the CI through the bootstrapping method (PRS-16-CV) and (2) LDpred2 and the CI through posteriors sampling (PRS-Bayes), among 17,166 lung cancer cases and 12,894 controls with European ancestry from the International Lung Cancer Consortium. Individuals were classified into different genetic risk subgroups based on the relationship between their own PRS mean/PRS CI and the population level threshold.

resultsConsiderable variances in PRS point estimates at the individual level were observed for both methods, with an average standard deviation (s.d.) of 0.12 for PRS-16-CV and a much larger s.d. of 0.88 for PRS-Bayes. Using PRS-16-CV, only 25.0% of individuals with PRS point estimates in the lowest decile of PRS and 16.8% in the highest decile have their entire 95% CI fully contained in the lowest and highest decile, respectively, while PRS-Bayes was unable to find any eligible individuals. Only 19% of the individuals were concordantly identified as having high genetic risk (> 90th percentile) using the two PRS estimators. An increased relative risk of lung cancer comparing the highest PRS percentile to the lowest was observed when taking the CI into account (OR = 2.73, 95% CI: 2.12-3.50, P-value = 4.13 × 10

conclusionsLung cancer PRS estimates using different methods have modest correlations at the individual level, highlighting the importance of considering individual-level uncertainty when evaluating the practical utility of PRS.

Indexed as

Genetic Risk ScoreLung NeoplasmsBayes TheoremGenetic Predisposition to DiseaseGenome-Wide Association StudyHumansRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsUncertaintyCancer controlGenetic epidemiologyNon-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)Polygenic risk score (PRSs)Population science

Identifiers

PMID38317189
PMCPMC10840262
OpenAlexW4391539455

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.